Wang Jianhua, chief analyst at Shanghai Steel Union Steel Union, said that in the past few years, some companies have continued to lose money, and cash flow pressure will not be able to support production. Overall, the country's crude steel production is expected to decline slightly in 2026, and steel supply and demand are expected to achieve a weak balance. In terms of costs, the average price of iron ore is expected to fall below 95 US dollars in 2026, the average price of coking coal may rebound by more than 10%, and environmental protection costs for steel mills may increase by a certain margin. Combining macroscopic, supply and demand, cost, and cycle effects, Wang Jianhua analyzed that the average price of steel is expected to rebound slightly in 2026 under neutral expectations, but whether it can be achieved also depends on steel mill supply adjustments.

Wang Jianhua, chief analyst at Shanghai Steel Union Steel Union, said that in the past few years, some companies have continued to lose money, and cash flow pressure will not be able to support production. Overall, the country's crude steel production is expected to decline slightly in 2026, and steel supply and demand are expected to achieve a weak balance. In terms of costs, the average price of iron ore is expected to fall below 95 US dollars in 2026, the average price of coking coal may rebound by more than 10%, and environmental protection costs for steel mills may increase by a certain margin. Combining macroscopic, supply and demand, cost, and cycle effects, Wang Jianhua analyzed that the average price of steel is expected to rebound slightly in 2026 under neutral expectations, but whether it can be achieved also depends on steel mill supply adjustments.