Assessing China Jinmao Holdings Group (SEHK:817)’s Valuation After Its November 2025 Contracted Sales Update
China Jinmao Holdings Group (SEHK:817) just released its unaudited contracted sales for November 2025, giving investors a fresh look at how its development pipeline is converting into actual cash-flow-generating deals.
See our latest analysis for China Jinmao Holdings Group.
That solid contracted sales update lands against a mixed backdrop, with a 30 day share price return of minus 16.33% and a year to date share price return of 29.47%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 31.93% contrasts with a weak 5 year total shareholder return of minus 54.28%, suggesting near term momentum is tentatively rebuilding after a tough longer stretch.
If this kind of turnaround story has your attention, it might be worth seeing which other real estate players are pairing fundamentals with strong insider alignment by exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
With analysts seeing nearly 30% upside to the share price and the stock still trading at a steep discount to some intrinsic value estimates, is China Jinmao genuinely undervalued, or is the market already pricing in a brighter future?
Price-to-Earnings of 31.1x: Is it justified?
On a trailing basis, China Jinmao trades at a price to earnings ratio of 31.1 times, slightly richer than both its closest peers and the wider Hong Kong real estate group.
The price to earnings multiple compares the company’s share price with its per share earnings, giving a quick read on how much investors are paying for each unit of profit. For a property developer that has only recently returned to profitability, a higher multiple can indicate the market is already baking in a sustained rebound in earnings, rather than just a one off recovery.
Versus direct peers, China Jinmao’s 31.1 times earnings is above the peer average of 30.8 times and more than double the Hong Kong real estate industry average of 13.6 times, suggesting investors are assigning it a premium typically reserved for stronger, more predictable profit growth. Yet when compared to the estimated fair price to earnings ratio of 17.8 times, the current market multiple appears elevated, which may point to a level the valuation could revert toward if expectations cool.
Explore the SWS fair ratio for China Jinmao Holdings Group
Result: Price-to-Earnings of 31.1x (OVERVALUED)
However, risks remain, including a fragile China property market and execution challenges across its sprawling mixed use, hotel and services portfolio that could undermine optimism.
Find out about the key risks to this China Jinmao Holdings Group narrative.
Another View: DCF Points to Deep Value
While the 31.1 times earnings multiple makes China Jinmao look pricey, our DCF model tells a very different story. It suggests fair value around HK$23.18 versus the current HK$1.23, implying roughly 95% upside. Is the multiple misleading, or is the DCF too optimistic?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out China Jinmao Holdings Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 913 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Build Your Own China Jinmao Holdings Group Narrative
If you see the numbers differently or prefer to dig into the details yourself, you can build a personalised view in just minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your China Jinmao Holdings Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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