Goldman Sachs expects the global stock market to bring positive returns in 2026 as the bull market expands, but predicts that the return on the index will be lower than 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that the return on the stock market in US dollars is 13%, mainly driven by profit growth rather than higher valuations. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the continued expansion of the global economy and the Federal Reserve's moderate easing provided support for this outlook. The company expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March and June next year. A team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer said, “Although investors are paying close attention to the field of artificial intelligence, this year is a good time to diversify the allocation.” Goldman Sachs added that for the first time in nearly 15 years, the US stock market performed worse than other markets, and Europe, Asia and emerging markets brought higher returns. Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue, and the US stock market may lag slightly again in 2026, and emphasizes that technology capital spending is spreading to the “old economy” sector, thereby boosting the growth prospects of infrastructure-related industries. The company estimates that the “Big 7 US Stock Companies” are still influential, but their contribution to the profit growth of the S&P 500 index is expected to drop from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026 as profits in the wider market accelerate. Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 earnings per share to increase by 12% in 2026, the European Stoxx Index by 5%, and the emerging markets by 17%. Goldman Sachs also raised the 12-month forecast for the European STOXX Index from 595 points to 615 points.

Goldman Sachs expects the global stock market to bring positive returns in 2026 as the bull market expands, but predicts that the return on the index will be lower than 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that the return on the stock market in US dollars is 13%, mainly driven by profit growth rather than higher valuations. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the continued expansion of the global economy and the Federal Reserve's moderate easing provided support for this outlook. The company expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March and June next year. A team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer said, “Although investors are paying close attention to the field of artificial intelligence, this year is a good time to diversify the allocation.” Goldman Sachs added that for the first time in nearly 15 years, the US stock market performed worse than other markets, and Europe, Asia and emerging markets brought higher returns. Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue, and the US stock market may lag slightly again in 2026, and emphasizes that technology capital spending is spreading to the “old economy” sector, thereby boosting the growth prospects of infrastructure-related industries. The company estimates that the “Big 7 US Stock Companies” are still influential, but their contribution to the profit growth of the S&P 500 index is expected to drop from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026 as profits in the wider market accelerate. Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 earnings per share to increase by 12% in 2026, the European Stoxx Index by 5%, and the emerging markets by 17%. Goldman Sachs also raised the 12-month forecast for the European STOXX Index from 595 points to 615 points.