Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the core driving logic of the coal price trend is the supply and demand pattern. The bank believes that there is currently not much room for a rapid decline in coal prices; the bottom of this round is expected to be 680-700 yuan/ton. Furthermore, since the implementation of the June 136 document, there has been a cliff-style decline in PV installations, which indicates that the pressure to replace new energy sources will drop in the first quarter of 2026. The bank believes that the bottom of the coal sector cycle has been confirmed at 25Q2, the supply and demand pattern has shown a reversal inflection point, and the bank expects that starting 26H2, the main demand for coal and downstream thermal power will enter a new upward cycle, which is worth looking forward to.

Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the core driving logic of the coal price trend is the supply and demand pattern. The bank believes that there is currently not much room for a rapid decline in coal prices; the bottom of this round is expected to be 680-700 yuan/ton. Furthermore, since the implementation of the June 136 document, there has been a cliff-style decline in PV installations, which indicates that the pressure to replace new energy sources will drop in the first quarter of 2026. The bank believes that the bottom of the coal sector cycle has been confirmed at 25Q2, the supply and demand pattern has shown a reversal inflection point, and the bank expects that starting 26H2, the main demand for coal and downstream thermal power will enter a new upward cycle, which is worth looking forward to.