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    Bernstein’s Bullish Call and Insider Moves Might Change The Case For Investing In Simply Good Foods (SMPL)

    Simply Wall St·12/23/2025 01:12:46
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    • Recently, Simply Good Foods’ CEO Geoff E. Tanner saw his 2025 compensation rise to an estimated US$4,330,633, alongside insider share purchases and shifting institutional positions that highlight evolving confidence levels in the business.
    • At the same time, Bernstein reaffirmed Simply Good Foods as one of its top picks ahead of Q1 2026 results, citing stronger U.S. scanner sales trends than current consensus expectations are assuming.
    • We’ll examine how Bernstein’s reaffirmed bullish stance, grounded in stronger-than-expected scanner sales, may reshape Simply Good Foods’ existing investment narrative.

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    Simply Good Foods Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Simply Good Foods, you need to believe its better-for-you brands can convert scanner sales momentum into consistent earnings while managing cost and integration pressures. Bernstein’s optimism around stronger U.S. scanner trends may support the near term revenue catalyst, but it does not remove the key risk that recent margin compression and one off losses could point to more persistent profitability challenges.

    The recent reaffirmation of FY2025 guidance, with net sales expected to rise 8.5% to 10.5% and a focus on volume driven organic growth, is the clearest company level backdrop for Bernstein’s stance. It frames the scanner data as part of a broader effort to grow Quest and OWYN while investing heavily in marketing and innovation, which could either reinforce or strain earnings depending on how efficiently that spending converts into profit.

    However, investors should also be aware that if OWYN’s integration fails to deliver the expected earnings uplift starting in fiscal 2026, then...

    Read the full narrative on Simply Good Foods (it's free!)

    Simply Good Foods' narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $204.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.1% yearly revenue growth and a $58.8 million earnings increase from $145.3 million.

    Uncover how Simply Good Foods' forecasts yield a $29.40 fair value, a 50% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SMPL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SMPL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three Simply Wall St Community estimates place fair value between US$29.40 and US$52.12, showing how far apart individual views can be. Set this against the company’s need to execute on OWYN integration and scanner driven growth, and it becomes even more important to weigh several viewpoints before deciding how Simply Good Foods might fit into your portfolio.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Simply Good Foods - why the stock might be worth just $29.40!

    Build Your Own Simply Good Foods Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.