CITIC Construction Investment: P-type HJT and perovskite lamination are expected to become the mainstream technology route for space photovoltaics in the short to medium term
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that space photovoltaics has moved from the testing stage to an accelerated commercialization period. Compared with the terrestrial photovoltaic scenario, it has not only broken intermittent bottlenecks, but also provided long-term energy support for scenarios such as space computing power, deep space exploration, power supply in remote areas, and military emergencies. P-type HJT batteries have the most obvious advantages in radiation resistance and weight reduction among existing mass production technologies. The penetration rate is expected to increase after 2026, and mainly to perform short-term low cost low power tasks in low rail. Perovskite and laminated batteries are expected to gradually undertake low-orbit constellations and deep space exploration missions after 2028, with their high specific power and radiation resistance advantages. Focus on companies with leading layouts in materials, equipment, etc.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Space photovoltaic technology
Space photovoltaics (SBSP) is a new full-chain energy solution for “space power generation - wireless transmission - terrestrial reception”. After 2024, it has entered a period of accelerated commercialization. Its core advantage is that it relies on an unattenuated, ultra-stable, and uninterrupted AM0 light source supply. The annual power generation hours and energy density are 4-7 and 7-10 times higher than terrestrial photovoltaics, respectively, to meet high-safety, high-coverage power supply requirements such as space computing power, deep space exploration, power supply in remote areas, military bases, and emergency rescue.
Space photovoltaic technology routes show clear scene differentiation
The bank expects three-junction gallium arsenide batteries to dominate scenarios such as high-value communication satellites and deep space exploration in the short term (2024-2027), but it is difficult to scale up in low-orbit scenarios due to cost and capacity constraints. Mid-term (2026-2030) P-type HJT batteries have better radiation resistance and lightweight performance in existing mass production technology, and are expected to gradually penetrate short-term low-orbit missions; long-term (after 2028) perovskite laminated batteries have accelerated breakthroughs with their high specific power ratio, and while achieving higher power generation efficiency, their lightweight capacity is also prominent. The application scenario is gradually expanding from current spacecraft power supply to targeted transmission of space solar power plants in 2030, ultimately supporting large-scale deployment of GW space data centers after 2035.
Focus on the flexible aspects of space photovoltaics and leading layout companies
The raw materials side focuses on gallium arsenide, high purity gallium smelting and silicon carbide substrate companies. The device side focuses on companies that have made breakthroughs in MOCVD equipment localization technology. The manufacturing side lays out battery manufacturing and power system links, and also focuses on the beneficiaries of technical routes such as perovskite and HJT. The core targets include Junda Co., Ltd., Dongfang Risheng, Maiwei Co., Ltd., Jiejia Weichuang, Jingshan Light Machinery, Dazu Laser, and Delong Laser.
risk analysis
Technology risk; cost risk; policy risk; competition risk.