Passenger Link Branch: From December 1 to 21, retail sales of 788,000 vehicles in the national passenger car new energy market increased 1% year-on-year
The Zhitong Finance App learned that on December 24, data released by the Passenger Link Branch showed that on December 1-21, the national passenger car market retailed 1.3 million vehicles, down 19% from the same period last year, up 5% from the same period last month, and has sold 22.783 million vehicles since this year, up 4% year on year; from December 1 to 21, passenger car manufacturers nationwide wholesale 1.32 million vehicles, down 23% from the same period last month, down 13% from the same period last month. Since this year, a total of 28.067 million vehicles have been sold.
From December 1 to 21, the national passenger car NEV market retailed 788,000 vehicles, up 1% from the same period in December last year, up 3% from the same period last month. The NEV retail penetration rate in the national passenger car market was 60.6%, with cumulative retail sales of 12.26 million vehicles since this year, up 18% year on year. From December 1 to 21, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 782,000 new energy vehicles, down 10% from the same period last month, down 12% from the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers is 60.1%, with a cumulative total of 14.538 million units. The year-on-year increase was 25%.
In the 1st to 3rd week of December, the country produced 681,000 pure fuel light vehicles, down 25% from the same period in December last year, down 10% from the same period last month; in the 1st to 3rd week of December, overall hybrid and plug-in hybrid production was 398,000 units, down 19% from the same period in December last year, down 11% from the same period last month.
1. Retail sales trend in the national passenger car market in December 2025
In the first week of December, the national passenger car market sold an average of 42,000 vehicles per day, down 32% from the same period last December and 8% from the same period last month.
In the second week of December, the national passenger car market sold an average of 67,000 vehicles per day, down 17% from the same period in December last year, and up 9% from the same period last month.
In the third week of December, the national passenger car market sold an average of 77,000 vehicles per day, down 11% from the same period in December last year, and up 9% from the same period last month.
From December 1 to 21, the national passenger car market retailed 1.3 million vehicles, down 19% from the same period last year, and increased 5% from the same period last month; since this year, the total retail sales volume of 22.783 million vehicles has increased by 4%.
The retail trend in the car market, which began in December 2025, is not strong. Due to the increase in replacement and renewal policies in various regions in December last year, the market continues to boom. The retail growth rate is low this year, which is basically in line with expectations. The trade-in policy stimulates demand for swaps. It is not a rigid purchasing demand. Consumer groups are extremely sensitive to policies, and demand fluctuates greatly. Affected by policy contractions, retail sales in the auto market declined month-on-month in November. Currently, retail sales growth in early December compared to November is also weak.
The country's macroeconomy continues to improve, and consumer confidence is relatively stable. However, due to the drastic tightening of trade-in and end-of-life renewal subsidy policies in some regions, retail sales experienced negative month-on-month growth in November, and fuel vehicle retail sales fell 22%, so dealers have also recently had a strong wait-and-see mentality. With the good results of anti-domestic sales, market promotion efforts remained moderate, so retail progress at the beginning of the month was not fast.
Due to the expiration of the NEV tax exemption this year, and affected by the policy of buying 5 more cars next year, consumers will still have a strong sense of urgency to buy cars at the end of the year. In order to cope with the increase in consumer car purchase costs due to extended delivery cycles, car companies have introduced purchase tax subsidy programs one after another. This back-up plan is only a temporary act at the end of this year and is unsustainable in the future. Many users are looking forward to the 2026 trade-in policy. Therefore, although December of this year is the final “0” purchase tax window, it is expected that support will be delayed but limited. If the 2026 trade-in policy can be announced at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, then the “15th Five-Year Plan” can still be expected to get off to a good start.
2. Wholesale sales trend of passenger car manufacturers across the country in December 2025
In the first week of December, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 43,000 vehicles per day, down 40% from the same period in December last year and 18% from the same period last month.
In the second week of December, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold an average of 62,000 vehicles per day, down 22% from the same period in December last year and 13% from the same period last month.
In the third week of December, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold an average of 81,000 vehicles per day, down 9% from the same period in December last year, and 11% from the same period last month.
From December 1 to 21, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 1.32 million vehicles, down 23% from the same period last year, and down 13% from the same period last month; since this year, a total of 28.067 million vehicles have been sold, an increase of 9% over the previous year.
There are 23 working days in December 2025, one more day than the same period last year, and 3 days more than the 20 working days in November. There is relatively plenty of time for production and sales in December. Wholesale sales by manufacturers were relatively slow in the first week of December. The main reason was that retail sales were weak in November. The current retail recovery was slower than expected. Channel inventory grew rapidly for two consecutive months, and dealers were extremely cautious in entering cars at the beginning of the month. However, in December 2024, the market was extremely enthusiastic. Continuous inventory removal led to lower inventories at the end of last year, and dealers were more proactive in purchasing, driving a sharp increase in wholesale in the first week. The performance in December of this year was also slightly lower than in the first half of December 2023, and the overall growth rate was better than 2024, so December this year is steady, and we look forward to a good start next year.
Domestic exports are steady and exports are strong. Since the third quarter, China's automobile export market has been improving, and some overseas markets have grown well. Overseas markets for autonomous new energy have performed well, and the pressure on the Russian market to remove inventory of fuel vehicles has decreased, driving the continuous increase in automobile exports in all aspects. As exports of Chinese plug-in and hybrid models increase, the impact of independent brands in overseas markets on international brands will gradually become apparent. According to the experience of strong growth in China's durable consumer goods exports in the past 20 years, improving the cost performance ratio of new autonomous vehicles and the construction of overseas marketing systems will drive Chinese independent brands to continue to strengthen in the international market, and their contribution to overseas sales continues to grow in the current month.
3. Analysis of the lithium battery market for new energy vehicles in November 2025
The power battery trend was weak in November. The performance of both exports and domestic sales was average. The battery growth brought about by the high growth in the original year-end new energy loading fell short, and the actual situation was very poor. Even so, the installed capacity rate has increased dramatically, showing that demand for energy storage has not exceeded expectations. Vehicle loading should be lower in December. Demand for new energy passenger vehicles is weak. Demand for batteries is extremely dependent on ultra-highly subsidized heavy truck batteries, but the increase or decrease in production materials is related to subsidies and tax exemption policies. It is expected that pure electric heavy trucks will plummet sequentially at the beginning of next year.
In November, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 176 GWh, an increase of 53% over the previous year. From January to November, China's cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1,469 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 46%. In November 2025, the proportion of power battery production loaded increased by 53%. Among them, the loading rate of ternary batteries was 50%, the loading rate of lithium iron phosphate was 54%, and the power battery loading boom reached a high level during the year.
According to certified battery capacity estimates, the production of NEV certified products in November 2025 was 1.72 million units, an increase of 19% over the previous year. From January to November 2025, the domestic certification of new energy vehicles was 12.92 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, 7.72 million were pure electric passenger cars, up 30% year on year; 4.5 million hybrid passenger cars, up 1% year on year; and 630,000 pure electric special vehicles and trucks, characterized by an abnormal surge in heavy trucks.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, 10% of the models had a battery energy density of 160 or higher. Compared with 13% in 2024, there was a marked decrease in energy density due to the three-yuan replacement of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Meanwhile, energy density products below 125 fell to 0% in 2025.
The competitive landscape of battery companies has formed a relatively strong characteristic of the Ningde era and BYD. Ningde Era (03750) and BYD will maintain a 65% ratio until 2025, and other companies have room for more than 30%. Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ), Everweft Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Geely Yaoning, and Chuneng New Energy performed well this year. Due to BYD's complete transformation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the advantages of ternary batteries from the top four companies, including Ningde Era, China Airlines (03931), LG, and Honeycomb, are even more obvious. Recently, strong high-end plug-in hybrids are driving the strength of ternary batteries.
4. Analysis of China's automobile export market from January to November 2025
In November 2025, China exported 810,000 vehicles, up 48% year on year, down 2% month on month. From January to November, China exported 7.33 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, which is strong overall. In November 2025, China exported 350,000 new energy vehicles, up 156% year on year, which is a good performance; from January to November 2025, exports of new energy vehicles were 3.01 million units, up 62% year on year, and the recent growth rate was very high.
The top 10 countries of China's total automobile exports in November 2025: Mexico 90,212, Russia 61,881, UAE 53,114, Brazil 29,231, Australia 26,121, United Kingdom 24,441, Algeria 21,532, Kyrgyzstan 21,372, Indonesia 20,915, and Kazakhstan 20,213, with the top five incremental increases over the same period: Mexico 54,705, UAE 22,877, and Algeria 19,213 18,620 in Brazil and 13,252 in Australia. In the Russian market, Chinese car companies' awareness of risk prevention has increased. Although sales in Russia did not decline much from January to November, our exports to Russia declined significantly from January to November 2025. The top 10 countries with cumulative total vehicle exports in 2025: Mexico 573,453, Russia 513,078, UAE 465,539, Brazil 285,122, UK 280,760, Australia 278,381, Belgium 275,764, Saudi Arabia 265,762, Philippines 236,466, and Kazakhstan 188,218. Among them, the top five were: UAE 173,897, Mexico 151,480, and Australia 115,667, Algeria 107,815, and England 99,945.
In November 2025, pure electric vehicles accounted for 26% (6% YoY), plug-in hybrid accounts for 17% (YoY +13%), hybrid accounts for 6% (+1% YoY), and pure fuel vehicles accounted for 40% (-19% YoY).
From January to November 2025, pure electric vehicles accounted for 28% (2% YoY), hybrid accounts for 13% (YoY +8%), hybrid accounts for 6% (+2% YoY), and pure fuel vehicles accounted for 43% (YoY -11%).
China's top 10 NEV exports in November 2025: Mexico 48,172, UAE 25,895, UK 19,191, Indonesia 18,337, Brazil 15,709, Philippines 14,486, Thailand 14,420, Australia 10,908, Israel 10,905, and Belgium 10,809, with the top five incremental increases over the same period: Mexico 44,295, UAE 19,648, UK 14,132, and Indonesia 13,888, Brazil 10,922. China's top 10 NEV exports from January to November 2025: Belgium 262,248, Mexico 199,041, UK 194,473, Philippines 185,834, Brazil 179,302, UAE 138,620, Australia 135,030, Thailand 126,728, Indonesia 106,568, India 96,971, among which the top five were: Mexico 122,896, UK 82,641, and the Philippines 80,163, UAE 71,416 and Australia 66,154.
China's NEV export performance from January to November 2025 was better than expected. Mainly, plug-in hybrid and general hybrid alternatives to pure electric vehicles became a new growth point for export growth. In particular, plug-in pickup trucks showed strong export performance and became the highlight of NEV commercial vehicle exports. China's NEV exports are showing high quality development to the Middle East and developed markets, mainly to Western Europe and Asia. The Russian decline in the fuel vehicle market is fully reflected, and the decline in retail sales in the Russian market we are monitoring is small. Among them, major car companies such as Geely (00175), Changan (000625.SZ), Chery (09973), and BYD (01211) performed very well.
5. Analysis of the Russian car market in November 2025 - autonomous car companies' share 57%
In November 2025, car sales in the Russian car market reached 142,000 units, down 2% year on year and 22% month on month. The cumulative sales volume of the Russian car market in January-November was 1.33 million vehicles, down 21% from the previous year. In 2023, China exported 1 million vehicles to Russia, and the independent Russian market sold 480,000 vehicles, which is 48% of China's independent exports. In 2024, China exported 1.28 million vehicles to Russia, and the independent Russian market sold 1.07 million vehicles. The independent Russian market sales volume was 84% of China's independent exports. From January to November 2025, China exported 513,000 vehicles to Russia, and its own brand sold 766,000 vehicles. Local sales were 149% of China's exports, and finally achieved a sharp trend of inventory removal.
From January to November 2025, Russia's share of Chinese autonomous car companies rebounded to 57.5%, and in November, the share of autonomous car companies in Russia rebounded to 56.9%. Facing Russia's complex environment, it is of great strategic importance for independent brands to have more children and fight. The official vehicle port of an independent brand, various models such as parallel exits, bypass exits, localized factory construction, and joint venture assembly joined forces. A large number of brands fought, and achieved great results. Regulating exports is inappropriate for Russia. In particular, we are facing Russia's targeted interference measures. We must give full play to the advantages of the masses and achieve innovative development in complex international relationships.
Chinese car companies are speeding up localized production and supply chain restructuring in Russia, and a number of measures have been taken to improve the situation. The first is to deepen the KD assembly model and establish a regional production base in response to the stepped increase in Russian import tariffs. Avoid tariffs and shorten delivery times through localized production. Build a regional parts center warehouse to increase the localization rate of core components to more than 60% and reduce supply chain risks; secondly, do a good job in product improvement, technology adaptation and special research and development for extremely cold environments. In response to Russia's extremely cold climate of -50℃ and complex road conditions, it is necessary to strengthen the low temperature battery management system, all-terrain chassis adjustment and anti-corrosion process to reduce the failure rate by 30% through anti-corrosion processes. ; The third is to do a good job in upgrading the omni-channel after-sales service system. In response to the problem of delayed maintenance response in remote regions of Russia, a three-level network of “central warehouse+mobile service vehicle+authorized repair point” was built to increase service coverage to more than 90%; fourth, brand value reshaping and accurate marketing. In response to Russian consumers' stereotype perception of “low price and low quality”, we have established a high-end image through technical endorsement and scenario-based marketing. At the same time, a cross-border e-commerce platform between Europe and Asia was developed to provide online matching+offline pick-up services, and use the RMB settlement system to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.