Orient Securities: Excavator exports accelerated the healthy development of the industry in November and there was a definite rise in certainty

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that the export volume of excavators accelerated in November, reflecting a rise in prosperity. From the perspective of exporting countries, the increase in export volume is mainly structural, reflecting the strengthening of the competitiveness of China's construction machinery, which is conducive to increasing the certainty of future exports. Furthermore, the bank also observed that exports from used mobile phones are heavily driven. The bank expects that exports of used mobile phones will help increase the utilization rate of domestic holdings and contribute to the long-term healthy growth of the industry. The bank believes that the market's expectations for an improvement in the health of the industry will rise, which will also lead to a decline in risk assessments, which will benefit investment opportunities for mid-market blue-chip companies. Some related targets: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH, unrated), Liugong (000528.SZ, unrated), Zoomlion Heavy Industries (000157.SZ, purchased), Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ, unrated).

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

According to customs statistics, excavator exports are accelerating, and the boom is rising

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2025, China exported a total of 27,752 crawler excavators, with a total amount of US$872 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.36% and 26.67%. The export volume growth rate in November was over 50%, higher than the cumulative growth rate of 35% in January-November. This is reflected in the acceleration of exports, reflecting the rise in prosperity.

Demand from exporting countries fluctuates, but the overall growth rate is resilient, and export growth is definitely rising

The bank observed that China's excavator exports fluctuated in November. Among them, exports to Brazil, Italy, and Vietnam increased by more than 100% month-on-month, while exports to the US, Indonesia, Russia, and Canada declined to varying degrees compared to October. However, although the demand status of various countries is not consistent, the growth rate of China's exports is still relatively fast. The bank believes that it is mainly because the competitiveness of China's construction machinery overseas is strengthening, and the bank expects a definite increase in excavator export growth in the future.

Used mobile phone exports are heavily driven, and domestic holdings are declining, which is beneficial to the long-term healthy growth of the industry

The bank found that the number of excavators exported by the General Administration of Customs was higher than the statistics of industry associations. In November, customs exported 27,800 units; in January-November, customs exported 274,000 units; in January-November, customs exported 274,000 units; and according to the Association's statistics, exports were 104,000 units. The bank believes that the main reason is the export of used domestic mobile phones. However, with the large number of domestic used mobile phones exported, the bank expects that the number of domestic excavators will also decline, and the decline in ownership will lead to a stabilization or increase in the utilization rate, which is beneficial to the healthy growth of the industry in the long run.

Risk Alerts

Macroeconomic fluctuations have led to investment falling short of expectations, high overseas interest rates are dragging down demand, overseas trade frictions have intensified, and rising raw material prices have dragged down corporate profits