Everbright Securities: Guangdong's electricity price signing results are in line with expectations, and the rest of the provinces will have relatively stable electricity prices in 2026
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report stating that Guangdong Province's 2026 electricity transaction results have been implemented. The bank believes that the results of signing electricity prices in Guangdong are in line with expectations. Guangdong Thermal Power Plant expects profits to be under pressure, but the spot market is expected to provide an increase in performance. Looking ahead to other provinces, the bank judged that the electricity spot market is not continuously settled, and in Beijing and Shanghai, where monthly Changxie electricity prices are relatively stable, the 2026 Changxie electricity prices are expected to be relatively stable.
The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
The price of thermal power is close to a 20% drop, and the comprehensive price of green power is higher than the price of mechanical electricity
The average transaction price was 372.14% per kilowatt-hour, -5.03% year over year. Basically, the market reference price decreased by 20%. Among them, the annual bilaterally negotiated electricity price was 372.14% per kilowatt-hour, -5.03% year-on-year, and the electricity transaction volume accounted for 99.87% of the total annual transaction volume. Green Power's bilateral negotiated electricity price was 372.21 cm/kwh, and the combined environmental premium was 4.93 cm/kwh. The corresponding comprehensive electricity price was 377.14 cm/kWh, -3.88% over the same period; however, it was higher than the mechanical electricity price of 360 cm/kilowatt-hour. The trading volume of green electricity in 2026 was +17.74% compared to the same period in 2025 (4.779 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 and 4,059 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025).
Capacity electricity prices are expected to increase by 0.016 yuan/kilowatt-hour year on year, and comprehensive feed-in tariffs are expected to remain basically the same year on year
Starting in January 2026, the coal and electricity capacity subsidy in Guangdong was raised from the previous 100 yuan/kilowatt capacity price to 165 yuan/kilowatt per year. Refer to the 3,950 hours of thermal power usage hours in Guangdong Province in 2024. The corresponding capacity subsidy is 0.042 yuan/kilowatt-hour, an increase of 0.016 yuan/kilowatt-hour over the previous year. The corresponding annual comprehensive electricity price (capacity+electricity) for coal-fired power plants in Guangdong was 0.414 yuan/kilowatt-hour, or -0.78% (corresponding to 3 cm/kilowatt-hour), which is basically the same as the previous year.
Guangdong Electric Power's easing continued in '26, and the spot market is expected to provide an increase in performance
Looking back at history, the average price in the spot market in 2025 and the monthly long-term agreement price have been lower than the average annual long-term agreement price for a long time. The average price of the real-time market from January to November 2025 and the current market spot market is lower than the average price of Changxie in 2025 at 391.86 yuan/MWh; the comprehensive price of medium- to long-term monthly transactions is also lower than the average price level of the Changxie average price for the current year. Guangdong's electricity supply and demand will be relaxed in 2025; considering that there is still an increase in installed capacity in Guangdong Province in 26 years, the bank expects the electricity supply and demand situation in 2026 to continue the relaxed pattern of 2025. With large-scale green electricity entering the market in Guangdong, electricity prices in the spot market are expected to increase. 1) electricity operators may use flexible strategies to make profits through spot and long-term cooperation electricity price differences; 2) large-scale entry of green electricity into the market will also highlight the role of thermal power in stabilizing power grids, and its functional premium is expected to be shown through the spot market.
Risk analysis: Demand for terminal electricity has declined; the progress of the transformation of new energy sources has fallen short of expectations; the implementation of the Coal Price Cooperation has fallen short of expectations; and the installed costs of wind power and photovoltaics have increased dramatically.