Guojin Securities: Covering Conoa-B (02162) for the first time, with a “buy” rating target price of HK$83.29

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that Conoa-B (02162) has many research lines, the core product Spuffizumab has been approved for marketing, CM512 (TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody) is currently expanding multiple phase II clinical trials, and CMG901, which authorized AZ, is expected to submit an NDA in the US in 2026. Early research lays out multi-technology platforms, and the pipeline is expected to gradually advance, with sufficient backup capacity. For the first time, coverage was given a “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$83.29.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

In-depth layout, differentiated layout to avoid chronic diseases and tumors

The core product, spochibimab, is the first domestically produced IL-4R monoclonal antibody. The first-mover advantage is obvious, and it is expected to be rapidly released after 26 years of medical insurance. IL-4R monoclonal antibodies can target various type II inflammatory reactive diseases such as atopic dermatitis (AD) and chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps (crSwnP). Currently, only 2 IL-4R monoclonal antibodies have been approved for marketing in the world. Sanofi's dupliumab has been rapidly released and continued to expand new indications since its launch in 2017, with global sales exceeding 14 billion US dollars in 2024. As the second IL-4R monoclonal antibody in the world and the first domestic IL-4R monoclonal antibody, sipucibizumab has an obvious first-mover advantage. Compared with non-head-to-head comparison, it has been approved for three indications (AD, crSWnP, and SARs for allergic rhinitis; the latter two are exclusive indications). Currently, sipuximab has been included in the national health insurance catalogue in December 2025. It is expected to be implemented in early '26, and the dosage is expected to be released quickly after entering medical insurance. Since its launch in September 2024, 2024 and 2025H1 sales have been 36 million yuan and 169 million yuan respectively, and sales are expected to reach 3.31/9.05/16.27 billion yuan respectively in 2025-2027.

CM512 (TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody) has now entered phase II clinical trials, ranked second in the global progress ranking. It has obvious differentiation advantages, a broad market layout, and great potential. TSLP and IL-13 play an important role in various type II inflammatory diseases such as asthma and COPD. Sanofi's TSLP/IL-13 monoclonal antibody has shown excellent efficacy and safety in stage I asthma. The company's CM512 is also a TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody, and the competitive pattern is good. Phase I AD clinical trials have shown strong efficacy and safety data. Currently, phase II clinical trials such as asthma, COPD, and CRSWnP are currently being carried out. It is expected that they may be approved for marketing in 2029, iterate on existing treatments, and have great potential.

CMG901 (Claudin 18.2 ADC) has been authorized to AZ and is progressing the fastest in the world. It is expected that 2L gastric cancer phase III clinical trials will be completed and declared for marketing in 2026. CMG901 is Claudin 18.2 ADC with the second highest progress in the world and the fastest progressing overseas. It has previously authorized AZ. The transaction price includes a down payment of $63 million, potential milestone payments of up to US$1,125 million, and high double-digit tiered royalties. 2L gastric cancer is expected to complete phase III and submit an NDA in 2026. It is expected that in 2027 it may be listed. In 2026-2027, the company is expected to receive a certain milestone revenue and a low double-digit net sales share after listing.

Profit forecasting, valuation, and ratings

The bank predicts that in 2025/2026/2027, the company will achieve operating income of 661 million/1,255 million/2,064 million yuan, +54%/+65% year over year, net profit to mother of 513 million/ -297 million/201 million yuan, corresponding EPS of -1.72/-0.99/0.67 million yuan. According to the DCF valuation method, the target price was HK$83.29, which was covered for the first time, and a “buy” rating was given.

Risk warning: Sales fall short of expected risk, R&D progress falls short of expected risk.