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    BillionToOne (BLLN) Is Down 6.7% After Joining the S&P Total Market Index - What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 13:24:54
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    • On 22 December 2025, BillionToOne, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BLLN) was added to the S&P Total Market Index, expanding its presence in broad U.S. equity benchmarks.
    • This index inclusion can be material because it often prompts benchmark-tracking funds and other institutional investors to consider the stock for portfolio inclusion.
    • We’ll now examine how BillionToOne’s entry into the S&P Total Market Index could influence its investment narrative and perceived market standing.

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    What Is BillionToOne's Investment Narrative?

    To own BillionToOne, you have to believe its rapid revenue expansion can translate into durable, profitable growth in a competitive healthcare space, despite its short public track record and premium valuation. The company has just pivoted from losses to modest profitability, guided to positive operating income for 2025, and now carries the added visibility of inclusion in the S&P Total Market Index, which may support liquidity but is unlikely to change the core earnings and execution story on its own. Instead, the more immediate catalysts remain the company’s ability to sustain high growth while improving margins, successfully commercialize its fetal antigen cfDNA testing, and integrate stronger financial oversight through the new audit chair. Key risks still center on rich sales multiples, volatile trading and the upcoming expiry of IPO lock-ups.

    However, this improving story sits alongside a concentration of risks investors need to understand. Despite retreating, BillionToOne's shares might still be trading 18% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BLLN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BLLN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster between about US$105.65 and US$137.83, suggesting wide conviction bands around BillionToOne’s future. Set against rich sales multiples and recent share price weakness, these contrasting views underline how differently investors can weigh index inclusion, growth potential and execution risk, and why it is worth exploring several perspectives before forming a view.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on BillionToOne - why the stock might be worth just $105.65!

    Build Your Own BillionToOne Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.