CITIC Securities: In 2026, the overall fundamentals of the new energy sector are expected to usher in significant improvements and strong growth in the energy storage and wind power industries
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that, driven by domestic systematization upgrades and overseas demand volume, benefiting from the supply pattern and global layout optimization, the fundamentals of the new energy sector are expected to improve significantly in 2026. They are optimistic about the high growth of the energy storage and wind power industry, the shift of photovoltaics to high-quality development, and new growth opportunities in the green fuel sector.
The bank pointed out that the “15th Five-Year Plan” is a critical period for domestic construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new energy system. It is expected that new energy will continue to advance quantitatively and qualitatively, and gradually resolve the shortcomings of difficult electricity consumption, internal volume and mechanical rigidity, and improve multi-level collaborative development of source networks and zero-carbon closed loop. At the same time, in the context of energy transformation, the surge in AIDC and the return of manufacturing industries will exacerbate the tense situation of overseas electricity. The world is expected to begin a supercycle of power construction, and new energy will become a key part of global energy development and structural transformation.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
New Energy Development 2.0: From “quantitative accumulation” to “qualitative leap”.
During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the country chased the wind and moved towards green. The development of new energy sources achieved significant accumulation of “volume”. Wind power photovoltaics grew from “supplementary energy” to a “mainstay” to replace thermal power, and the price and settlement mechanism for new energy electricity was gradually integrated into the market. The “15th Five-Year Plan” is the sprint period for carbon peak in 2030 and a critical period for building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new energy system. While new energy maintains the resilience of installed capacity growth, it is expected to accelerate the leap in “quality” and show structural aspects such as policy orientation (from “forced drive” to “assessment guidance”), power supply structure (from “main wind support” to “wind storage collaboration”), electricity consumption (“channel foundation building” to “multi-level closed loop”) and market application (from “electricity bias” to “balancing non-electricity”) optimization.
Energy storage: Start new growth and lay out a new direction.
1) In terms of large storage, the domestic electricity spot market is well established, the utilization rate of independent energy storage has been steadily increased, capacity electricity prices have been promoted and implemented, and the business model has gradually matured, and demand has returned to market-based value, leading to quantitative and qualitative progress; under the circumstances where overseas energy storage projects are profitable and models are diversified, and the impact of trade policies is weakening, the global large storage capacity CAGR is expected to remain around 50% in 2025-2027.
2) In terms of industrial and commercial storage, benefiting from increased support from various countries, reduced system costs, and broadening application scenarios, it is expected to begin a high growth stage from 1 to 10.
3) The surge in AIDC and the upgrading of power supply schemes are also driving demand for distribution and storage, further opening up room for growth in the energy storage market. China has a complete energy storage industry chain from batteries and PCS to system integration, leading the global energy storage supply chain. Chinese energy storage manufacturers are expected to benefit from the gradual increase in domestic energy storage product standards and profit levels. At the same time, with rich project experience, significant cost performance advantages and supply chain support capabilities, they will strengthen their global share advantage and leading voice, and drive continued high growth in performance.
Wind power: a new cycle of value expansion, creating new business cards for going overseas.
Demand for domestic wind power is expected to grow steadily due to higher yield and the comparative advantage of being more friendly to power grids; at the same time, overseas wind power policy support and development efforts are increasing, and domestic and foreign wind power growth in the medium term tends to be at the same frequency, starting a new cycle of global wind power growth.
Fans: The domestic business is expected to benefit from “reverse internal circulation”, usher in a steady recovery in prices and gross margins, accelerate the expansion of the “Double Seas” business, open up room for growth in the global market, and promote both profit and valuation increases.
Parts: The bank expects supply and demand in the parts industry to be slightly loose in 2026, overall volume and profit will stabilize, and growth in different sectors may diverge. Component beta sees overseas, expands a high-profit market and high sustainable growth; α looks at product upgrades, focuses on structural supply shortages and profit optimization, and suggests focusing on core products such as pipe piles, submarine cables, foundry spindles, and bearings.
Photovoltaics: The inflection point of the industry is approaching, and the release of new technology can be expected.
On the demand side, domestic PV installations are expected to be under pressure in 2026, and overseas high-base market growth will slow, while emerging markets will remain dynamic. The bank expects global installed capacity to fall by 5%-10% to 520-550 GW. On the supply side, under the impetus of strengthening manufacturers' self-discipline requirements and comprehensive cost limits, the photovoltaic “reverse internal roll” is beginning to bear fruit in the upstream process. As the industry returns to standardized and orderly competition, and potential supply-side reform measures such as capacity acquisition and integration and technical standards are gradually improved and implemented, the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to usher in a reasonable price recovery and profit restoration, and fundamentals are expected to be consolidated and improved.
At the same time, new technology has always been the driving force for the continuous development of the photovoltaic industry in the medium to long term. Companies that have pioneered the deployment of new technology are expected to take the lead in the industry's cold winter. High-efficiency crystalline silicon cells, copper paste, and perovskite are directions worth paying attention to. In addition, leading photovoltaic equipment companies have strong vertical R&D and horizontal expansion capabilities, and the second and third growth curves for semiconductors, optical modules, robots, and solid-state batteries are expected to bear fruit.
Green fuel: The policy trend is getting closer, and the trillion dollar market is ready to go.
Green liquid fuels, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and SAF, are one of the main drivers of decarbonization in the shipping, aviation, chemical and other fields. Benefiting from domestic renewable energy non-electricity consumption guidance and increased overseas carbon tax policies, and rapid cost reduction driven by optimization of electricity mechanisms and processes, the green fuel industry is entering the fast track of development. The market is expected to grow nearly 10 times in 2025-2030. The market space is expected to reach trillion yuan in the long run as the comprehensive cost gap with fossil fuels gradually narrows and even levels off.
The domestic green fuel industry chain has rich and inexpensive green power resources, complete equipment supply and downstream systematic support advantages. It is accelerating the key leap from demonstration verification to clustered layout and commercial operation. Diverse application scenarios are expected to continue to be activated, and integrated manufacturers and equipment suppliers with advantages in value and voice in the industrial chain are expected to benefit deeply.
Risk factors:
Demand for energy storage is slowing down due to dilution of electricity market revenues; electricity demand in domestic and foreign markets falls short of expectations; electricity market reforms fall short of expectations; industry subsidies fall short of expectations or weak policy support; demand growth for wind power photovoltaics falls short of expectations; price restoration of photovoltaic modules, fans, energy storage systems and other products falls short of expectations; prices of raw materials and components have risen sharply; overseas market and customer expansion falls short of expectations; “anti-internal volume” policy implementation falls short of expectations; the progress of backward photovoltaic production capacity clearance falls short of expectations; new photovoltaic technology development falls short of expectations; green Fuel support policies fell short of expectations; green fuel supply and demand patterns deteriorated; green fuel infrastructure support was insufficient.