The board of Marui Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:8252) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of ¥66.00 on the 26th of June, an increased payment from last year's comparable dividend. This will take the dividend yield to an attractive 4.0%, providing a nice boost to shareholder returns.
A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. The last dividend made up quite a large portion of free cash flows, and this was made worse by the lack of free cash flows. We think that this practice can make the dividend quite risky in the future.
Earnings per share is forecast to rise by 7.7% over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, our estimates say the payout ratio could reach 86% - on the higher side, but we wouldn't necessarily say this is unsustainable.
Check out our latest analysis for Marui Group
The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was ¥18.00, compared to the most recent full-year payment of ¥130.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% a year over that time. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. We are encouraged to see that Marui Group has grown earnings per share at 11% per year over the past five years. The payout ratio is very much on the higher end, which could mean that the growth rate will slow down in the future, and that could flow through to the dividend as well.
In summary, while it's always good to see the dividend being raised, we don't think Marui Group's payments are rock solid. While the low payout ratio is a redeeming feature, this is offset by the minimal cash to cover the payments. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.
Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. For example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Marui Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing. Is Marui Group not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.