Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | When will the gold and silver innovation and precious metals feast end? (with concept shares)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the 2025 transaction is nearing its end, and the global precious metals market is once again entering a historic market. On December 26, international gold and silver prices simultaneously hit record highs. Among them, the London gold spot reached a high of 4549.9 US dollars/ounce; silver performed even more rapidly, hitting an intraday high of 79.4 US dollars/ounce, with an increase of more than 174% during the year.

Since 2025, gold has led the precious metals market, and silver has taken the lead. The precious metals market experienced several major stages of tariff drive, fluctuation adjustment, interest rate cut expectations, and technical pullback throughout the year. Just when the market thought that the market would fluctuate at a high level and ended, a new round of gains resumed and reached another record high.

Specifically, on December 26, the spot price of gold in London broke through the 4,500 US dollars/ounce integer mark. Up to now, COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices have both increased by more than 70% during the year.

Silver performed even more brilliantly. The COMEX silver price surged for five consecutive trading days from December 19 to 26. The price rose from the opening of $65.44 to a maximum of $79.7. COMEX silver futures have accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 172% since 2025.

The domestic precious metals market followed suit. Shanghai Gold futures rose 62% during the year, hitting a high of 1,024 yuan/gram, while Shanghai Bank futures rose more than 157% during the year, hitting a high of 19,215 yuan/kg.

Faced with sharp fluctuations, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on December 26 to adjust the trading parameters of gold and silver futures contracts starting at the close settlement on December 30. This is also the third time this month that the Institute has adjusted risk control parameters for precious metal varieties in the previous period. According to the latest notice, the margin for adjusted gold and silver futures contracts was adjusted to 15%, the margin ratio for holding positions was adjusted to 16%, and the margin ratio for general position trading was adjusted to 17%.

The market is also watching for new trade risks that silver may face. Silver was added to the US Geological Survey's “Key Minerals” list in November, which means it may be included in future tariff discussions. Since the beginning of October, 75 million ounces of silver have been shipped from the Comex warehouse in New York, but due to concerns that US silver may experience a sudden premium, many traders are cautious about shipping the metal overseas, further increasing the tight demand in overseas markets.

The precious metals feast that has taken the world by storm is supported by multiple factors.

According to CITIC Securities analysis, gold prices are expected to continue to benefit from the loose liquidity atmosphere brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2026, and global gold ETF inflows will be an important purchase for gold.

Trump also publicly advocates a looser monetary policy, and falling interest rates usually provide support for precious metals that do not have to be paid interest. Also, amid concerns that countries' debt continues to expand, investors are rapidly withdrawing from sovereign bonds and fiat currencies, and “devaluation transactions” have further supported demand for gold.

At the same time, there is a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. Goldman Sachs pointed out in its research report that the high degree of linkage between silver and gold prices reflects the simultaneous flow of capital within the precious metals sector, but unlike gold, the continued expansion of industrial demand provides additional support for silver prices. Bank of America data shows that since 2021, the silver market has continued to be in short supply, and global inventories have fallen to a ten-year low.

Looking ahead to the future market, Bank of China International said that although after the Federal Reserve began the interest rate cut cycle, some of the funds that entered the market in the early stages based on loose expectations may have been profitably settled, causing short-term fluctuations and fluctuations in silver prices. However, from a medium-term perspective, the core logic that determines the price of silver has moved from a single financial attribute to strong industrial demand driven by the “green energy transition” and the “artificial intelligence revolution.” In a context where the amount of silver used in fields such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI infrastructure continues to grow, and the global silver market has faced structural supply shortages for several years, the commodity properties of silver are building a solid long-term upward foundation for it.

Furthermore, CICC believes that the market fluctuates or increases significantly after the price of gold has separated from the fundamental indicators and fits the model. It is recommended to downplay gold price point predictions and pay more attention to when asset trends change. The 2026 gold bull market may not be a one-sided market, but will fluctuate along with the Federal Reserve's policies and US economic trends.

Related concept stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): The CAGR for mineral gold production in 2020-2024 is 12%, and the growth rate is also among the highest among the world's major gold mining companies; the CAGR for copper/gold production continues to be 8-10% in 24-28; and the delivery capacity is good. The average completion rate of copper/gold production plans for 14-23 was 104/96%, respectively. At the same time, the company has strong cost-effective mergers and acquisitions and endogenous resource fission capabilities. The amount of copper/gold resources increased 6/3 times in '23 compared to '14.

Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358): Jiangxi Copper is an important silver production base in China. Its “Jiangtong” silver is a registered product of the London Gold and Silver Market Association (LBMA) and has international recognition. Although the company's silver business accounts for a relatively small share (about 3.25%), as a by-product of copper and gold smelting, its production is stable and internationally competitive. If the price of silver continues to strengthen, or if industrial demand grows further, this business may bring additional benefits to the company.

Shandong Gold (01787): Considering the company's inventory situation and the fact that many new construction and expansion projects are still underway, and that the parent company Shandong Gold Group is rich in gold resources, there are expectations for future asset injections. At the same time, there is still room for upward growth in gold prices. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 30.30, 50.83, and 5.938 billion yuan, respectively.

China Baiyin Group (00815): China Baiyin Group is a national professional silver producer and comprehensive silver operator. Its business covers the entire industry chain of silver manufacturing, jewellery retail and silver trading. The company is certified by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and produces “silver ingots with a purity of 99.999%”, which is at the highest level in the world. In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.97%; net profit to mother was 9.966 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.5%.