Hualong Securities: 2026 passenger car transfer logic, AI and overseas travel are the key to breaking the game
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hualong Securities released a research report saying that in 2026, the passenger car industry will shift to stock logic, and the search for new growth poles will become the core. On the overall vehicle side, it is still worth looking forward to. New business model changes and expansion of new businesses such as humanoid robots under AI transformation are expected to restructure the valuation framework of car companies; in terms of auto parts, autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots are both expected to achieve phased progress of 1-10 or 0-1 in 2026, and the flexibility of the core links in the industry chain can be expected to maintain the industry recommendation rating.
The main views of Hualong Securities are as follows:
Passenger cars: fundamentals look at new cars & overseas, valuations look at AI enabling transformation
As the marginal effects of the two new policies weaken, the passenger car industry switched to inventory logic in 2026. The core is to find new growth poles. From a fundamental perspective, look at hot new cars and the increase in overseas sales. In terms of new cars, the driving force of popular new cars on sales volume became the main driving force for many autonomous car companies to increase domestic sales in 2025. Many car companies entered the product year in 2026 and the high-end process continued, focusing on the driving effect of new cars with explosive potential on car companies' sales & fundamental improvements; in terms of going overseas, 2025-2026 will be a period of intensive implementation of overseas production capacity for autonomous car companies. Looking forward to the end of 2026. It is expected that 8 overseas factories will be put into operation, corresponding to 805,000 units of production capacity. Increment and its high The profit level is expected to drive auto companies' performance recovery.
Changes in consumer mentality and preferences in the AI era are forcing passenger car companies to improve the level of product intelligence, build know-how capabilities such as large AI models and intelligent driving algorithms, and achieve transformation from manufacturing companies to technology companies & platform enterprises. On the one hand, as L3 autonomous driving enters mass production applications, the revenue model of car companies is expected to expand from one-time car purchase revenue to a model that relies on a continuous expansion of existing users to generate continuous subscription revenue. On the other hand, car companies rely on intelligent capabilities and manufacturing capabilities to expand businesses such as humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft. Referring to Tesla, the bank believes that the valuation of passenger cars and energy storage businesses accounts for only 14.3% of its total market value. Businesses such as Robotaxi and Optimus have become a major part of supporting market capitalization. As domestic car companies' AI capabilities develop and transformation accelerates, the valuation framework is expected to usher in changes.
Auto parts: Autonomous Dongfeng has arrived, and the robot flywheel is about to start
In the AI era, Auto Parts is embracing the opportunity of physical intelligence. Judging from the two carriers of autonomous driving and robots: L3 & L4 are parallel, and autonomous driving Dongfeng has arrived. At the L3 level, Huawei/Xiaopeng and others have already launched related technical solutions/products; the policy side has issued the first batch of L3 entry permits, car companies continue to obtain test licenses, and smart driving penetration rates are expected to increase further under L3 experience upgrades and data backlash; at the L4 level, open area expansion and superimposed fleet size increase, and the bicycle UE of the three leading domestic Robotaxi companies has been corrected, and the Robotaxi market size is expected to enter a period of rapid growth. Focus on core components and operators in the autonomous driving industry chain.
On the demand side, orders for the industrial logistics scenario are growing rapidly. As robots enter factories and accumulate data in 2026, it is expected to feed back and optimize product performance and drive a further increase in demand; on the production side, in 2025, leading humanoid robot OEMs have basically achieved 1,000 units of production/shipment. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic and foreign humanoid robot manufacturers will make frequent financing actions to support subsequent large-scale capital expenses, and the gradual formation of superimposed product designs and complete supplier production lines. OEMs are expected to begin mass production of thousands to tens of thousands of units in 2026. It is recommended to focus on two types of manufacturers. One is a definitive supplier represented by supporting Tesla, and the other is a supplier of new components/technology that is expected to enter the industrial chain in the future.
Investment suggestions: In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to focus on: (1) Autonomous car companies that maintain technical advantages in smart driving, etc., and autonomous car companies that are expected to achieve rapid growth in export sales due to the implementation of overseas production capacity. Specific targets include Xiaopeng Automobile-W, Great Wall Motors, Cyrus, BYD, and Zero Sports. (2) Desai Xiwei, Huayang Group, Bethel, etc. that lay out the core incremental component of autonomous driving; (3) Sanhua Intelligent Control, Topu Group, Zhejiang Rongtai, Yinlun Co., Ltd., Longsheng Technology, Junsheng Electronics, Beite Technology, Hengshuai Co., Ltd., Shuanghuan Drive, Lixing Co., Ltd., etc., which are definitive targets and incremental track standards for humanoid robots.
Risk warning: Policies fall short of expectations; passenger car market sales fall short of expectations; new car sales fall short of expectations; autonomous driving progress falls short of expectations; humanoid robot industry progress falls short of expectations; competition increases risk; geopolitical risk; risk of errors in third-party data; focus on the company's performance falling short of expectations.