Oriental Securities: Google (GOOGL.US) liquid cooling servers are growing rapidly, and domestic suppliers will get more supporting space
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that Google (GOOGL.US) said during the 3rd quarter earnings conference call that the company will raise the 2025 capital expenditure guideline from 85 billion US dollars to 910-93 billion US dollars, and that capital expenditure is expected to increase dramatically in 2026. Considering TPU v7 shipments and the value of liquid cooling in a single cabinet, etc., according to estimates, the Google server liquid cooling market is expected to be around 18 billion yuan in 2026, a significant increase from 2025, and the Google server liquid cooling market will usher in rapid growth. A breakthrough in Google's choice of liquid cooling suppliers will provide more supporting market space for domestic suppliers, and the liquid cooling business will become the second growth curve for domestic suppliers.
Orient Securities's main views are as follows:
Google TPU v7 servers are expected to fully switch to liquid cooling
Google accelerates the expansion of AI computing power: Google raised the 2025 capital expenditure guide from 85 billion US dollars to 910-93 billion US dollars during the 3rd quarter earnings conference call, and expects a sharp increase in capital expenditure in 2026. Google TPU has also made breakthroughs in export sales. In addition to Anthropic and Meta, users outside of Google TPU include companies such as Apple, SSI, and Cohere, and AI companies such as OpenAI and XAI have also become potential customers of TPU. TPU v7 will soon be officially released. Its thermal design power (TDP) will reach 980 watts, approaching the limit of air cooling. In the future, all Google TPU v7 and above chips will switch to liquid cooling solutions. As Google TPU ushered in both shipment volume and liquid cooling penetration rate in 2026, Google's demand for liquid cooling system components is expected to increase dramatically.
Google server liquid cooling market will usher in rapid growth
Considering TPU v7 shipments and the value of liquid cooling in a single cabinet, etc., according to Oriental Securities estimates, the Google server liquid cooling market is expected to be around 18 billion yuan in 2026, a significant increase from 2025, and the Google server liquid cooling market will usher in rapid growth. According to estimates, the total overseas server liquid cooling market is expected to reach 93.478 billion yuan in 2026, of which Nvidia's server liquid cooling market accounts for about 69.3%; Google ranks second, accounting for about 19.3%.
Google's liquid cooling supplier model breaks down, domestic suppliers will get more supporting space
Google's liquid cooling supplier selection model is different from Nvidia. In order to ensure the safety, stability, and reliability of its own data centers, Google is expected to directly connect with liquid cooling system and component suppliers and conduct certification tests. Google liquid cooling system suppliers will directly support Google products as tier-1 suppliers, and liquid cooling system suppliers will purchase liquid cooling system components from parts suppliers designated by Google.
Google puts forward four major requirements for liquid cooling suppliers: (1) sufficient production capacity; (2) rapid response and delivery capabilities; (3) reasonable and competitive prices; and (4) global delivery capabilities. Google released the fifth-generation CDU 0.8 supplier. From demonstration suppliers to mass production suppliers, factors such as production capacity preparation, cost control, and product consistency need to be considered. Currently, it is still in the process of selecting mass production suppliers. It is expected that more domestic suppliers will pass Google's audit and certification and enter Google's liquid cooling supply chain system in the future.
Domestic manufacturers actively lay out the liquid cooling industry chain
Invek pioneered the Coolinside full-chain liquid cooling solution in 2021. It is one of the companies with the most complete line of liquid cooling products and the best ecological layout in China. The company's UQD and other products are listed as MGX ecological partners on the Nvidia Blackwell platform. In addition to Invek, Tongfei Co., Ltd., Shenling Environmental Co., Ltd., and Gaolan Co., Ltd. have also implemented and delivered full-stack solutions for liquid cooling and are actively deploying overseas markets. Domestic suppliers have also made great strides at the level of liquid cooling components, such as Silver Wheel Co., Ltd., Feilong Co., Ltd. Domestic manufacturers have a layout in core components such as liquid cooling plates, CDUs (including core components such as liquid cooling pumps and heat exchangers), quick couplings, manifolds, and coolants, and it is expected that they will enter the overseas liquid cooling supply chain one after another.
Investment advice
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Risk Alerts
Overseas data centers such as Google are expanding at a lower rate than expected, the penetration rate of liquid cooling is lower than expected, the overseas progress of domestic liquid cooling suppliers is lower than expected, market competition intensifies, and changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.