Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Gas Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:GASMSIA)

Key Insights

• Gas Malaysia Berhad's estimated fair value is RM4.90 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Gas Malaysia Berhad's RM4.36 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Analyst price target for GASMSIA is RM4.34 which is 11% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Gas Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:GASMSIA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)	RM272.7m	RM278.1m	RM301.0m	RM325.5m	RM343.1m	RM360.0m	RM376.4m	RM392.5m	RM408.7m	RM425.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 5.42%	Est @ 4.91%	Est @ 4.55%	Est @ 4.30%	Est @ 4.12%	Est @ 4.00%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%	RM251	RM236	RM236	RM235	RM228	RM221	RM213	RM204	RM196	RM188

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM2.2b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM425m× (1 + 3.7%) ÷ (8.5%– 3.7%) = RM9.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= RM9.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)¹⁰= RM4.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM6.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of RM4.4, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Gas Malaysia Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for Gas Malaysia Berhad

SWOT Analysis for Gas Malaysia Berhad

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Gas Malaysia Berhad, there are three pertinent elements you should further examine:

1. Risks: Be aware that Gas Malaysia Berhad is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does GASMSIA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the KLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.