Trump Called Iran 'Tough Negotiators'—What Do Prediction Markets Say About A Nuclear Deal?

Donald Trump called Iran a “tough negotiator” last night aboard Air Force One, saying he would be involved in the upcoming Geneva talks “indirectly.”

Hours later, the second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations wrapped with both sides reportedly agreeing on guiding principles for a potential deal.

Crude slid on the news, with Brent falling 2.3% to $67 and WTI down 1.3% to $62

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television that a general agreement had been reached on guiding principles that would form the basis for drafting a deal.

He described the atmosphere as constructive but cautioned the process would take time. “The path to an agreement has begun, we are ready,” Araghchi said.

Strait Of Hormuz Flexing

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard began drills in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and escalated Tuesday by temporarily closing portions of the waterway and firing live missiles, the first such closure since tensions with Washington escalated.

About 13 million barrels per day of crude transit the strait.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei added his own warning, telling a domestic audience that the weapon capable of sinking a warship is more dangerous than the warship itself.

Oil And The Trade

United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:UCO) may face continued pressure if talks advance. The deal framework eased the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting prices for weeks.

The asymmetric setup matters here. A successful deal may push oil down roughly $5 per barrel, while a breakdown could spike prices $5 to $10 with a lasting premium.

The USS Gerald R. Ford is now en route to join the USS Abraham Lincoln to provide further leverage for Trump.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket traders give a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 a 39% probability. The U.S. strikes Iran by June 30 contract sits at 52%.

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) remains a key beneficiary of the military posture through its Pentagon analytics contracts.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) face a tug-of-war between geopolitical premium and the prospect of increased Iranian supply, with OPEC+ also reportedly leaning toward resuming production increases in April.

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