Vance: Iran Won't Acknowledge Trump's Red Lines As Strike Odds Spike To 74%
Vice President JD Vance gave a mixed verdict on Tuesday’s Geneva nuclear talks, saying Iran agreed to meet again but has not acknowledged the conditions Trump won’t negotiate around.
“In some ways it went well. They agreed to meet afterward,” Vance told Fox News. “But in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.”
The primary red line, per Vance: Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump, he added, “reserves the ability to say when he thinks that diplomacy has reached its natural end.”
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), speaking in Tel Aviv on Monday, said the U.S. is “on the verge of eliminating the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the region,” adding that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are aligned “about what to do and how to do it.”
Israel is deeply skeptical any deal can be reached, with Netanyahu “inclined to support military action” over diplomacy and the ballistic missile issue seen as a fundamental dealbreaker.
What Does Polymarket Think?
Polymarket’s “US Strikes Iran By…?” market is pricing a US strike on Iran by December at 74%, up 7% in the last 24 hours.
The odds of a strike before June 30th have risen from 44% to 68%
The odds of a strike by the end of the month have almost doubled, from 17% to 32%.
Polymarket traders are skeptical that this pressure will lead to lasting change; with the odds of the Iranian Regime falling by the end of the year, rising modestly to 38%.
Conflicting Red Lines
Washington wants Iran to end all uranium enrichment on its soil and expand talks to cover Tehran’s ballistic missile program. Iran has called zero enrichment its own red line, and said missiles are not on the table.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said there may be room for a nuclear-only deal, noting Iran has not operated a centrifuge since last June’s 12-day war.
On missiles and regional proxies, though, he said Tehran is likely to offer only superficial concessions rather than the broader capitulation Washington is seeking.
The Trade
Iran sits at the center of a region that produces roughly a third of the world’s oil supply.
A deal likely nudges Brent down around $5 per barrel.
A collapse in talks could push prices $5 to $10 higher, a sustained conflict could be even more inflationary.
United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:UCO) are the most direct ways to position around that outcome.
For longer-term exposure, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) offer a more nuanced bet; both would benefit from sustained high prices, though any deal that brings Iranian supply back to market, combined with OPEC+ resuming production increases in April, may cap the upside.
On the defense side, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) could be worth watching. Its Pentagon analytics contracts put it in a strong position to capitalize as the US military buildup in the Gulf accelerates.
RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX), whose Raytheon segment manufactures the Tomahawk and Patriot missiles likely to be used in any strike, may also see a sharp move.
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