Why Is MercadoLibre Stock Falling Thursday?

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) shares fell Thursday after JPMorgan downgraded the Latin American e-commerce giant, warning that intensifying competition in Brazil and heavier investment spending could keep profit margins under pressure.

The bank cut its rating on MercadoLibre to Neutral from Overweight and lowered its price forecast to $2,100 from $2,650, citing persistent competitive pressure in Brazil—particularly from Sea Limited’s (NYSE:SE) Shopee platform—and management’s willingness to accept lower near-term margins while prioritizing growth investments.

MercadoLibre Plans $3.4B Argentina Investment

Separately, MercadoLibre expects to invest $3.4 billion in Argentina in 2026, a roughly 30% increase from the $2.6 billion planned for 2025, CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn said, Reuters reported.

The investment will support logistics expansion, new distribution centers, technology upgrades, and growth of fintech unit Mercado Pago.

The company also plans to create nearly 2,000 jobs in Argentina, where it currently employs about 16,700 people, Reuters reported.

Technical Analysis

Mercado Libre is trading 11.3% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 19.6% below its 100-day SMA, keeping both the short- and intermediate-term trend pointed down. Shares are down 17.79% over the past 12 months and are now positioned closer to their 52-week lows than highs after setting a new 52-week low on 2026-03-12.

The RSI is at 38.08, which sits in neutral territory but leans toward weakening momentum after the stock dipped into oversold levels on 2026-03-03. Meanwhile, MACD is at -79.2935 and below its signal line at -77.8404, reinforcing bearish pressure as downside momentum remains in control.

The combination of RSI in the 30–50 range and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum.

• Key Resistance: $1810.50
• Key Support: $1654.00

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the May 6, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.

• EPS Estimate: $10.67 (Up from $9.74 YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $8.35 Billion (Up from $5.93 Billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 44.8x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $2748.75. Recent analyst moves include:

• JP Morgan: Downgraded to Neutral (Lowers Target to $2100.00) (Mar. 12)
• Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Lowers Target to $2600.00) (Mar. 9)
• JP Morgan: Overweight (Lowers Target to $2650.00) (Mar. 2)

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Mercado Libre, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

• Momentum: Weak (Score: 12.53)
• Quality: Weak (Score: 16.78)
• Value: Neutral (Score: 39.58)
• Growth: Strong (Score: 94.6)

The Verdict: Mercado Libre’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a “growth-first, trend-last” setup. Growth is the clear strength, but very weak Momentum and low Quality scores suggest traders may keep selling rallies until the stock can reclaim key moving averages and hold above resistance.

Top ETF Exposure

• Emerging Markets Internet and Ecommerce ETF (NYSE:EMQQ): 7.72% Weight
• The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (NYSE:EMQQ): 8.57% Weight
• YieldMax Crypto Industry & Tech Portfolio Option Income ETF (NYSE:LFGY): 4.64% Weight

Significance: Because MELI carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

MELI Price Action: MercadoLibre shares were down 6.83% at $1645.45 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is trading at a new 52-week low, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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