Analysts Are Updating Their Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (HKG:2145) Estimates After Its Annual Results
Shareholders might have noticed that Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (HKG:2145) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to HK$56.50 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥9.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.9% to hit CN¥2.77 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the latest results, Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥11.0b in 2026. This would be a notable 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 21% to CN¥3.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.59 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic
The consensus price target held steady at HK$99.94, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic at HK$117 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$55.09. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 20% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.