NuScale Power Is Down 80% -- That's Great News for Long-Term Investors
Key Points
NuScale won’t deploy its first SMRs until the early 2030s.
But its revenue could skyrocket when it finally crosses that milestone.
NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), a producer of small modular reactors (SMRs), saw its stock set a record high of $53.43 per share last October. Today, its stock trades at about $10. That 80% decline was painful for investors who hastily hopped aboard the bandwagon, but it could be great news for long-term investors who can tune out the near-term noise.
Why did NuScale's stock fizzle out?
A conventional nuclear reactor, which generates more than 1,000 MW of electricity, is usually housed in several massive containment buildings. NuScale's SMRs, which can fit in vessels that are only 65 feet high and nine feet wide, are better suited for smaller power plants. Its newest design, approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) last year, is a 77 MW reactor.
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NuScale's SMRs are prefabricated, modular, and assembled on-site, reducing the costs and complexity of building a nuclear power plant. That innovative approach impressed many investors, and the growing energy demands of the power-hungry cloud and AI markets -- which drove many countries to accelerate their nuclear expansion plans again -- boosted its stock.
However, NuScale hasn't deployed any of its reactors yet. It currently generates most of its revenue by conducting front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for building a 462 MW plant (which combines six of its 77 MW SMRs) in Romania. It also recently agreed to deploy up to six gigawatts of SMR capacity across seven states for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). However, none of those plants will actually come online until the early 2030s.
Why could NuScale's stock be worth buying?
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, NuScale might seem overvalued at 38 times this year's sales. However, analysts expect its revenue to surge from $31 million in 2025 to $331 million in 2028 as it secures more FEED studies, licensing deals, and revenue-generating contracts. If it matches those estimates, it still looks reasonably valued at ten times its 2028 sales.
In the 2030s, NuScale's revenue could skyrocket as it finally deploys its first SMRs. According to Research and Markets, the global SMR market could be worth $5.2 billion by 2035. If NuScale maintains its first-mover advantage in this market, it could generate billions of dollars in annual revenue through the 2030s. So while NuScale will remain a highly speculative play in this volatile market, its steep pullback over the past six months could be a great buying opportunity.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.