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    Why HP (HPQ) Is Down 6.4% After Beating Quarterly Revenue Expectations And Showing Operational Resilience

    Simply Wall St·04/12/2026 00:41:01
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    • In its recent quarterly update, HP reported US$14.44 billion in revenue, up 6.9% year on year and ahead of analyst expectations, underscoring robust cash generation and operational discipline despite sector-wide concerns over AI-related spending.
    • While HP’s long-term sales have been broadly flat with some aging profit engines, its ability to pair pricing power with steady profitability sets it apart from many hardware peers currently under pressure.
    • With HP exceeding revenue expectations and reinforcing its operational resilience, we’ll now examine how this affects the company’s existing investment narrative.

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    HP Investment Narrative Recap

    To own HP, you need to believe that a mature PC and print franchise can steadily convert revenue into cash even as growth stays modest. The latest quarter’s US$14.44 billion in revenue and ongoing free cash flow support that view, but they do not materially change the near term picture: the key upside still hinges on AI PC and services uptake, while the biggest risk remains structural decline and pricing pressure in traditional print and PC hardware.

    The most relevant recent announcement here is HP’s updated earnings guidance alongside this quarter’s results, which kept full year GAAP diluted EPS expectations in the US$2.47 to US$2.77 range. That signals management still sees enough profitability to fund dividends and buybacks, even as analysts flagged a slight miss in next quarter EPS guidance. For investors focused on catalysts, it puts more weight on upcoming AI centric product cycles to offset any future pricing or demand headwinds.

    Yet behind the solid quarter, the risk that ongoing print market declines and tougher PC pricing may chip away at HP’s cash engine is something investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on HP (it's free!)

    HP’s narrative projects $57.4 billion revenue and $2.7 billion earnings by 2029. This requires flat yearly revenue growth and a roughly $0.2 billion earnings increase from $2.5 billion today.

    Uncover how HP's forecasts yield a $19.43 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    HPQ 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    HPQ 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming HP’s revenue would actually shrink about 0.6 percent a year to roughly US$54.9 billion by 2028 and still only support about US$2.9 billion in earnings, which is far more cautious than the base case. If you compare that to the recent revenue beat and ongoing AI PC push, it shows how widely views can differ and why it is worth weighing several possible paths before deciding how this latest quarter might reshape your own expectations.

    Explore 8 other fair value estimates on HP - why the stock might be worth just $18.00!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

    • A great starting point for your HP research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free HP research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate HP's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.