Trump To Reclassify Marijuana 'As Soon As Wednesday,' But Prediction Markets Are Skeptical

Cannabis stocks ripped today on an Axios scoop that President Donald Trump will move to reclassify marijuana as soon as this week.

Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY), Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) and Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) pushed higher on the report, alongside the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE:MSOS).

But a Polymarket contract on whether marijuana gets rescheduled by June 30 is still at 32%. The same market gives a 65% chance it happens by year-end.

Delays, Delays, Delays

Rescheduling a drug would normally require an HHS review, a proposed rule, a public comment period, a hearing on the record, and a final rule. That process has been underway since 2022 and stalled in May 2024.

Administrative law judge John Mulrooney retired in August 2025 before that hearing happened, nobody has replaced him, and the case has not moved in eight months.

There’s one shortcut that could still work. Section 811(d) of the Controlled Substances Act lets the attorney general skip the whole process and issue a direct order, as long as she cites U.S. obligations under a 1961 international drug treaty.

The DEA pulled the same move in 2018 to schedule Epidiolex, a CBD-based epilepsy drug. No comments, no hearing, effective the day it hit the Federal Register.

Attorney General Pam Bondi has not publicly signaled she is ready to file a direct order.

The Legal Problem

The next problem is the legal challenge. Even if Bondi files an 811(d) order this week, the lawsuit lands the same afternoon, and a district court can freeze the rule before the effective date regardless of how fast DOJ moves.

Smart Approaches to Marijuana, the anti-legalization group run by Kevin Sabet, has reportedly hired former Attorney General Bill Barr to sue the moment a final rule drops.

Twenty-two Republican senators wrote Trump opposing rescheduling last year.

A temporary restraining order before June 30 closes the window on Yes.

That is what Polymarket’s 32% is pricing: not whether Trump wants this done, but whether DOJ picks the fast lane and the courts let it stand.

Five Catalysts, Ten Weeks

Between now and June 30, the contract reprices on five discrete events: Wednesday’s filing, the Federal Register publication date, the first lawsuit, the first TRO ruling, and any Circuit-level stay.

The two that matter most are the publication date, which starts the 30-day effective-date clock, and the TRO ruling, which can stop it.

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