Taiwan Semiconductor Snub Wipes $16 Billion Off ASML

ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) shares closed lower on Thursday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) signaled it will delay adopting the chip equipment maker’s most advanced tools, raising fresh concerns about demand visibility.

TSMC Flags Cost Concerns, Delays Adoption

Taiwan Semiconductor Co-Chief Operating Officer Kevin Zhang said the company’s A13 node does not require ASML’s High-NA EUV machines, citing their high cost, Bloomberg reported.

He indicated the company will hold off on using these systems for mass production until at least 2029.

Stock Drops As Market Reacts

Following Zhang’s comments, shares of Europe’s most valuable company fell about 3%, erasing roughly 14.32 billion euros ($16.76 billion) in market value.

Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya told The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that the remarks also pressured broader semiconductor sentiment, despite recent market strength.

Analysts See Mixed Implications

UBS analysts told the WSJ the development is “a modest negative versus our base case,” as it could slow expected demand for High-NA machines. However, they noted the delay may allow competing chipmakers to adopt the technology earlier.

Citi analysts added that the stance aligns with Taiwan Semiconductor’s prior comments in 2024 and 2025, reinforcing its cautious approach.

Technical Analysis

ASML is still holding the upper half of its 52-week range after peaking in February, which keeps the longer-term trend constructive even as the stock digests gains.

It’s trading 2.4% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 9.2% above its 100-day SMA, a setup that leans bullish for intermediate trend control even if the near-term pace has cooled.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum indicator, remains above its signal line, with a positive histogram, suggesting buyers still have a slight momentum edge.

In everyday terms, MACD being above the signal line means upside pressure is still outweighing downside pressure, even if it’s not accelerating sharply.

The 20-day SMA is still below the 50-day SMA, a “mixed” short-term signal that can indicate consolidation rather than a clean breakout.

Zooming out, the golden cross that formed in June 2025 (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) is consistent with the stock’s broader uptrend staying intact.

• Key Resistance: $1532.00 — an area where rallies have recently stalled near the prior highs.
• Key Support: $1291.00 — a zone where buyers previously showed up after the March breakdown.

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 15, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.

• EPS Estimate: $8.10 (Up from $6.69 YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $10.37 Billion (Up from $8.72 Billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 46.7x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $1505.00. Recent analyst moves include:

• RBC Capital: Outperform (Raises Target to $1700.00) (April 16)
• Bernstein: Outperform (Raises Target to $1971.00) (March 26)
• RBC Capital: Outperform (Raises Target to $1625.00) (January 29)

Top ETF Exposure

• Dimensional World ex US Core Equity 2 ETF (NYSE:DFAX): 0.53% Weight
• First Trust NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund (NASDAQ:QTEC): 3.02% Weight
• First Trust BuyWrite Income ETF (NASDAQ:FTHI): 2.04% Weight

Significance: Because ASML carries significant weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.

Price Action

ASML Stock Price Activity: ASML shares closed lower at $1,417.80, down $25.86, or 1.79%, on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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