Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On MonotaRO Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:3064) First-Quarter Report
It's been a good week for MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.3% to JP¥1,847. Revenues of JP¥96b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥17.99, missing estimates by 4.1%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering MonotaRO are now predicting revenues of JP¥375.1b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.7% to JP¥74.67. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥374.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥74.46 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for MonotaRO
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,211. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MonotaRO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,700 and the most bearish at JP¥1,900 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MonotaRO's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MonotaRO's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while MonotaRO's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,211, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple MonotaRO analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for MonotaRO that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.