Citi said that after experiencing a major supply shock, the aluminum market is facing the most bullish market in more than 50 years. Prices are expected to rise to 4,000 US dollars per ton in the short term, and there is a possibility of a further sharp rise. The war in Iran triggered an unprecedented crisis in the global aluminum market, which could have a devastating ripple effect on many industries such as construction, packaging, transportation, and green energy. Citi pointed out that it was mainly due to the loss of more than 3 million tons of supply due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East, which pushed the market into a state of structural shortage at a time when idle production capacity was almost zero and inventories were at a 55-year low. The bank expects that even with weak demand, there will still be a gap of about 2.7 million tons this year, which will cause inventories to fall to historic lows over the next 6 to 12 months. Citi believes that if demand damage is limited, the price of aluminum is expected to rise steadily to $4,000 per ton in the next three months; the average price is expected to remain at this level in the second half of 2026, and the price will rise to 5,350 US dollars per ton under the optimistic scenario of 2027.

Citi said that after experiencing a major supply shock, the aluminum market is facing the most bullish market in more than 50 years. Prices are expected to rise to 4,000 US dollars per ton in the short term, and there is a possibility of a further sharp rise. The war in Iran triggered an unprecedented crisis in the global aluminum market, which could have a devastating ripple effect on many industries such as construction, packaging, transportation, and green energy. Citi pointed out that it was mainly due to the loss of more than 3 million tons of supply due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East, which pushed the market into a state of structural shortage at a time when idle production capacity was almost zero and inventories were at a 55-year low. The bank expects that even with weak demand, there will still be a gap of about 2.7 million tons this year, which will cause inventories to fall to historic lows over the next 6 to 12 months. Citi believes that if demand damage is limited, the price of aluminum is expected to rise steadily to $4,000 per ton in the next three months; the average price is expected to remain at this level in the second half of 2026, and the price will rise to 5,350 US dollars per ton under the optimistic scenario of 2027.