Michael Burry Compares OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX IPO Hype To Dot-Com Bubble
Michael Burry is drawing a sharp comparison between today's private-market giants and one of the most infamous speculative peaks in market history: the dot-com bubble.
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In a Wednesday morning post on X, Burry said that, adjusted for inflation, potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could raise as much or more capital than roughly 300 internet and technology, media and telecom IPOs did in 2000.
He also attached an image to his post showing a "National IPO Market Review" from the dot-com era, highlighting the intensity of the 2000 IPO boom and the sudden deterioration that followed as investor appetite for technology stocks collapsed.
Burry’s Latest Warning
The message is not subtle. Burry appears to be warning that the current enthusiasm around AI and space tech may be entering the same psychological zone that defined the late 1990s: massive capital raises, soaring private valuations and public-market investors eager to buy into transformational growth stories before the economics are fully tested.
The image Burry highlighted is important because it captures both sides of the 2000 cycle.
On the way up, technology and internet companies dominated the IPO market, with investors rewarding growth narratives and first-day trading pops.
But as the year progressed, the market shifted. Nasdaq weakness, tightening capital conditions and doubts about business models caused the IPO window to narrow.
Many companies that had rushed public during the boom later struggled, collapsed or disappeared.
Burry is invoking that historical parallel.
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are not small speculative startups. They are category-defining companies tied to some of the biggest themes in markets: commercial space, AI, automation and cloud-scale computing.
But Burry's point is about scale and timing. If just three companies can rival the inflation-adjusted capital raised by hundreds of dot-com-era IPOs, it suggests the market's concentration of hype and capital has become extreme.
While OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX remain private, public-market investors have looked for indirect ways to trade the theme.
Destiny Tech100 Inc. (NYSE:DXYZ), which has held private tech names including SpaceX, has become one of the more visible proxies for private-market AI and space exposure.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) also remains a key public-market AI bellwether through its deep ties to OpenAI.
The Takeaway
For investors, Burry's warning is less about whether these companies are "real" and more about price.
The dot-com bubble included companies that eventually became enormously valuable, but many investors still lost money by buying into peak expectations.
Burry is suggesting a similar risk may be forming in AI and space: great companies can still become dangerous stocks if valuations assume perfection.
His post also lands at a time when public investors are increasingly looking for ways to gain exposure to private AI leaders.
Demand can create a powerful IPO setup, but it can also create the conditions for excess. In Burry's view, the upcoming mega-IPO wave may not be a victory lap for innovation, but rather a warning sign.
This image was generated using artificial intelligence via Gemini.