Prediction: Joby Aviation Will Soar Over the Next 5 Years -- 1 Key Driver Behind the Rally
Key Points
Joby’s stock has gone nowhere since its public debut.
But it could take off once the FAA approves its first commercial flights.
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), a producer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Aug. 11, 2021. Its stock opened at $10.62 per share, set a record high of $20.39 on Aug. 4, 2025, but now trades at about $9. It initially impressed investors with its progress toward commercial eVTOL flights, but its luster faded amid delays and regulatory challenges. Elevated interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and other macro headwinds exacerbated that pressure.
With a market cap of $9.2 billion, Joby still looks expensive at 83 times this year's sales. However, I believe one catalyst could drive its stock much higher over the next five years.
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Joby has plenty of irons in the fire
Joby's S4 eVTOL can carry a single pilot and four passengers, travel up to 150 miles on a single charge, and reach a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. The S4 can travel faster and farther than its closest competitor, Archer Aviation's (NYSE: ACHR) Midnight eVTOL, because it uses tilt-rotor propellers that alternate between lifting and cruising modes. The Midnight is heavier because it uses separate propellers for lifting and cruising.
Joby has completed test flights in the U.A.E., South Korea, and Japan. It's already backed by big investors and customers, including Toyota (NYSE: TM), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), and Uber (NYSE: UBER). Toyota will help Joby mass-produce its eVTOLs, Delta will use the S4 as a "last mile" airport-to-home air taxi service, and Uber will integrate those flights into its app. It also holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense.
What's the big catalyst that will drive its stock higher?
Joby has plenty of irons in the fire, but it can't ignite them with the government's approval. Joby expects the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to fully approve its first commercial flights in the U.S. in late 2026. It also plans to launch its first air taxi flights in Dubai this year, even though the Middle East conflict might disrupt and delay those plans.
If the FAA finally clears Joby's S4 for commercial flights, its revenue could skyrocket over the next few years as its eVTOLs replace traditional helicopters. That's why analysts expect its revenue to surge from $53 million in 2025 to $458 million in 2028.
But that could just be the beginning. According to Eve Air Mobility's recent Global Market Outlook, there could be 30,000 eVTOLs in the air carrying three billion passengers globally by 2045. So even though Joby's stock looks expensive today, it could still soar a lot higher. Assuming it matches analysts' expectations through 2028, grows its revenue at a 30% CAGR through 2031, and trades at 30 times its current year's sales by the final year, its stock could more than triple over the next five years.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.