Italgas' Buy Rating Confirmed as BofA Notes New Strategic Plan; Estimates Trimmed

12:01 AM EDT, 06/29/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research affirmed its buy rating for Italgas (IG.MI), with a price objective of 11.7 euros, after the Italian gas distributor's new strategic plan "met but not surpass" high buyside expectation. "Earlier this week Italgas presented its new 2026-32E strategic plan, guiding to >9% EPS [compound annual growth rate] to 2032E, driven by 1) an 60% increase in tender [capital expenditure], and 2) another upgrade to synergies/efficiencies to EUR280mn (from EUR250mn), in line with our expectations. While the plan did point to the 4-8% upgrades flagged in our preview, we believe investor expectations had outpaced consensus in the run-up to the event, leaving limited room for incremental positives. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that Italgas' ~14% [total stock return] until 2032E and undemanding valuation (12.5x 27E [price-to-earnings] a discount to peers at 14-17x) represent an attractive equity story, which could further be boosted by M&A optionality and tender acceleration," analysts wrote in a note published June 26, 2026. On the forecast side, the research firm trimmed its revenue estimates by 0.5% for 2026, 0.7% for 2027, and 1.5% for 2028, citing marginal changes in tender timing and greater financial costs. EPS forecasts were unchanged for 2026, and lowered by 1% and 1.8%, respectively, for 2027 and 2028. After the summer, analysts expect a renewed focus on the trigger mechanism in the Italian allowed return calculation, with analysts flagging a potential 4% reduction in Italgas' 2027 EPS from a 30-basis-point cut in allowed returns. This implies a 50bps cut in the group's CAGR for 2025 to 2032.