Joby Aviation Stock: Is It More Likely to Hit $15 or $5 This Year?

The electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) market is a tough one to invest in because it's in such an early stage. While there are multiple companies involved in the space and trying to convince investors they're the real deals, it's difficult, if not impossible, to predict which, if any, will lead the market in the next five to 10 years.

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is one of the promising players in the industry, and that's evident with its sizable valuation. Its market cap is nearly $9 billion -- more than double that of rival Archer Aviation. But investors have grown bearish about Joby's stock of late, as it's down more than 30% since the beginning of the year. Trading at around $9, investors may be torn about where the eVTOL stock will be headed from here on out: is it more likely to get to $15 or $5 this year?

Why has the bearishness taken over?

Joby's stock had been rising prior to the start of this year on the hope that its air taxis would soon commence operating activities. While that's still a possibility, it's notable that the stock began to go into a free fall in late January after Joby announced it was raising about $1.2 billion from the issue of common stock and convertible notes, raising flags over the unprofitable company's need to raise cash -- an issue that's likely to persist over the long haul.

While Joby has been showcasing its air taxi with test flights in New York City and Dubai, investors are still left waiting for approval from regulators, which would surely be the catalyst that lifts the stock higher. Joby has previously stated it expects to commence U.S. operations at some point this year. If that ends up happening, that could be what's needed for the stock to rally once more.

Joby's stock could be due for a rally, but it remains risky

Assuming that Joby does indeed obtain certification for its air taxis this year and begins commercial air taxi operations, the stock could quickly rally and make up for the losses it's incurred thus far in 2026. I believe that's a more probable scenario than it falling further down to $5 or lower, as the stock has been fairly stable over the past few months, and unless there's some more negative news to come out to cause its stock to crash further, I think a rally is more probable than a further decline.

That being said, this remains a fairly risky stock due to its uncertain future and the company inevitably incurring losses for the foreseeable future. But for growth-oriented investors who are willing to take on some risk, Joby's stock could make for an intriguing buy right now.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.