Guoxin Securities: Home appliance consumption is expected to survive the darkest hour and actively pay attention to technological transformation
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that 2025H2 to 2026H1 is the pressure range for home appliances under a high national supplement base. Combined with the pressure of rising raw materials prices and the appreciation of the RMB, home appliance companies are affected by multiple negative effects on revenue and profits. Looking ahead to 2026H2-2027, the high base brought about by national supplements is expected to ease significantly, and domestic sales are expected to return to a steady track; while export sales are also expected to resume steady growth after the transfer and restructuring of the US tariff supply chain and inventory removal in overseas emerging markets. Currently, leading home appliance companies are generally in a state of “short-term pressure, but valuations are not expensive, and dividends are impressive”. Therefore, after the fundamentals of the industry have bottomed out, leading home appliance companies are expected to usher in a double restoration of fundamental expectations and valuations.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
White electricity: Domestic sales may go through the most difficult period. Export sales of ice washing are growing steadily, and are expected to pick up after air conditioning is under pressure
Fundamentals: Currently similar to 2012 Q4, that is, subsidies weaken, industry sales decline, leading performance fluctuate, and the industry is still under pressure but marginal improvement in subsequent quarters; Valuation perspective: Valuation pressure is greatest when the industry margins fall, but now it has reached the bottom of the industry, fundamentals are about to improve marginally, so the bottom valuation level is worth paying attention to; Recommendations: Midea Group, TCL Smart Home, Haier Smart Home Appliances, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances.
Black Electric: The share of leading domestic brands continues to increase, and structural upgrades bring about an increase in profitability
Black Electric's export sales have continued to expand in recent years, and the overseas share of domestic leaders has continued to increase, and along with product structure upgrades, profitability has continued to improve in recent years; recommendations: industry leaders TCL Electronics and Hisense Video.
Technological transformation: focus on epitaxial mergers and acquisitions and business collaboration
Epitaxial mergers and acquisitions: Typical examples include Minpop Optoelectronics and Anfu Technology. Through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, they have entered booming fields such as PCB drills and 3.2T optical modules. The main business provides steady cash flow. The boom in new technology businesses continues to improve, and the acquisition targets are competitive in the segment;
Business collaboration: Typical examples include Dayuan Pump Industry and Tongxing Technology, based on its own R&D and production advantages in core components, entering fields such as AIDC liquid cooling and robot thermal management. It can give full play to its collaborative advantages in R&D, supply chain, manufacturing, and clients, and can enter new fields more efficiently and form its own barriers.
Risk warning: Domestic and foreign demand fluctuates, policy strength falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, expansion in new fields falls short of expectations, tariff risks, and large fluctuations in raw materials and exchange rates.