Société Générale said that the strength and resilience shown by the Indian rupee in June may have been an exception, not normal, and that the easiest phase of the currency's rise may have come to an end. The return of geopolitical risks and the rise in oil prices will adversely affect the rupee. The recent surge in USD/INR is seen as a “warning sign” that most of the optimism may have been digested by the market. Portfolio capital is expected to continue flowing into India in 2026.

Société Générale said that the strength and resilience shown by the Indian rupee in June may have been an exception, not normal, and that the easiest phase of the currency's rise may have come to an end. The return of geopolitical risks and the rise in oil prices will adversely affect the rupee. The recent surge in USD/INR is seen as a “warning sign” that most of the optimism may have been digested by the market. Portfolio capital is expected to continue flowing into India in 2026.