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    How QNX Royalty Wins and GEM Momentum Could Shape BlackBerry’s (TSX:BB) Growth and Earnings Story

    Simply Wall St·07/10/2026 11:27:54
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    • In recent months, BlackBerry has reported expanding opportunities for its QNX business in robotics and industrial automation, secured a major royalty commitment from a semiconductor equipment maker, deepened its Luminex partnership with an SDP 8 upgrade, and drawn increased attention following consistent earnings beats and a Zacks Rank #2 rating.
    • An interesting angle is BlackBerry’s General Embedded Market strategy, where management now points to GEM as the fastest-growing QNX segment with a strengthening pipeline.
    • We’ll now examine how this QNX royalty win and GEM momentum may influence BlackBerry’s existing investment narrative around growth and earnings quality.

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    BlackBerry Investment Narrative Recap

    To own BlackBerry today, you need to believe QNX can keep deepening its role in safety critical software while Secure Communications sustains profitable, recurring demand. The latest QNX royalty win and GEM commentary reinforce the near term growth catalyst in embedded software, while the biggest risk remains whether that design win and pipeline strength ultimately turn into durable, high quality royalty streams at a valuation that already embeds high expectations.

    Among the recent updates, the first quarter fiscal 2027 results stand out most in this context. Revenue of US$152.9 million and net income of US$8.5 million, both ahead of guidance, sit alongside the GEM-focused QNX wins to support the current earnings quality story. At the same time, significant insider selling and a rich price to earnings multiple remind investors that execution on GEM and QNX royalties needs to keep pace with the share price.

    Yet beneath the optimism around QNX and GEM, investors should be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on BlackBerry (it's free!)

    BlackBerry's narrative projects $738.9 million revenue and $142.2 million earnings by 2029. This requires 8.4% yearly revenue growth and a $82.4 million earnings increase from $59.8 million today.

    Uncover how BlackBerry's forecasts yield a CA$10.22 fair value, a 37% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSX:BB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSX:BB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue of about US$781.2 million and earnings of roughly US$140.1 million by 2029, so if you think GEM and Physical AI growth could falter rather than accelerate, that is a very different story you will want to compare with the new QNX royalty news.

    Explore 7 other fair value estimates on BlackBerry - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.