Cadre Holdings (CDRE) Wins FBI Armor Contract, Is It Still 38% Below Fair Value?
Cadre Holdings (CDRE) is back in focus after its Safariland unit was selected to supply ballistic panels for an FBI armor program under a five year, $61 million federal contract.
See our latest analysis for Cadre Holdings.
Despite the FBI armor contract drawing fresh attention to Cadre Holdings, the stock’s share price is down 29.6% year to date and 11.3% over 90 days, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 34.65% suggests longer term holders have still seen gains.
If this contract has you thinking more broadly about protective gear and critical equipment suppliers, it could be a good moment to scan 18 top founder-led companies
Cadre Holdings now trades at a steep discount to analyst targets despite a fresh federal contract in hand. Is the market rightly cautious about the business and valuation, or marking the stock down too far?
Most Popular Narrative: 38.1% Undervalued
Cadre Holdings last closed at $28.95, while the most followed narrative backs a fair value of $46.80, putting a clear gap between current pricing and these modeled expectations.
The company's robust pipeline of high-margin M&A targets, paired with disciplined capital allocation, is expected to drive scale, operational leverage, and long-term adjusted EBITDA growth, with free cash flow generation supporting both organic growth and shareholder returns.
This narrative places significant emphasis on earnings power and margin expansion, rather than relying primarily on revenue growth assumptions or sector sentiment changes.
Result: Fair Value of $46.80 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear risk flags for Cadre Holdings, including timing delays on major contracts and higher M&A costs that could put pressure on margins and cash flow.
Find out about the key risks to this Cadre Holdings narrative.
Next Steps
With sentiment on Cadre Holdings clearly mixed, with both concerns and reasons for optimism, it makes sense to review the full picture quickly and weigh the stock's 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs through 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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