Shen Wan Hongyuan: Oil price center rises, petrochemical performance maintains high growth
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that the oil price center is rising, and the overall expectation is to maintain a high oil price background in 2026, and oil companies' performance will benefit unilaterally; the oil price boom is picking up, which is expected to increase investment in oil and gas exploration and development; the US ethane supply and demand maintain a relaxed pattern, and the rise in oil prices has great performance elasticity. The overseas energy crisis has accelerated the clearance of backward production capacity. Large-scale domestic enterprises are expected to gain significant advantages by stabilizing the supply chain; supply support for overseas refined oil products is stronger; supply and demand in the downstream polyester sector are gradually tightening, and there are expectations that the economy will improve.
Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:
Crude oil prices rose year-on-month in 2026Q2, while prices of refined oil products fell
The average price of Brent crude oil in April, May, and June 2026 was 102.5, 103.7, and 84.4 US dollars/barrel, respectively, and the fluctuation range narrowed to 72-118 US dollars/barrel. The average price in Q2 was 96.7 US dollars/barrel, up 23.3% from the previous month, up 44.9% year on year, and closed at 72.9 US dollars/barrel at the end of the quarter. In 2026Q2, gasoline and diesel prices were raised 3 times and lowered 3 times, while gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by a total of 780 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton.
2026Q2 domestic refining, Singapore refining, cracked ethylene, ethylene-ethane, ethylene-naphtha, polypropylene propane, acrylic acid, butyl acrylate, butadiene-naphtha, and POY price differences increased month-on-month; styrene, PXN, and PTA price differences narrowed month-on-month: 2026Q2 domestic refining price difference was 1,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 302 yuan/ton month-on-month; Singapore refining price spread was 39.8 US dollars/barrel, up 11.9 US dollars/barrel from month to month. The overall price spread in the olefin industry chain increased, and the cost advantage of ethylene to ethylene increased: the price difference between ethylene and naphtha was 259 US dollars/ton, an increase of 117 US dollars/ton; the price difference between ethylene and ethylene was 952 US dollars/ton, an increase of 316 US dollars/ton; the price difference between acrylic acid and propylene was 2504 yuan/ton, an increase of 451 yuan/ton from month to month; the average price difference of butyl acrylate was 2,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from month to month; the average price difference of butyl acrylate was 2,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from month to month.; The average price difference between butadiene and naphtha was 882 US dollars/ton, which increased month-on-month $151/ton. Profit differentiation in the polyester industry chain. The price difference between PX and PTA narrows, and the price difference between the PX and naphtha links widened. The price difference between 2026Q2 PX and naphtha was 273 US dollars/ton, narrowing 13.0 US dollars/ton from month to month; the average price difference of POY-0.86PTA-0.34MEG was 1,599 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton from month to month.
The performance forecast for key industry companies for the second quarter of 2026 is as follows
The average price of Q2 crude oil moved further upward to around $96.7 per barrel. Looking at losses on the crude oil supply side throughout the year, the oil price center is expected to remain high during the year. The bank expects significant year-on-month improvements in upstream oil and gas exploration and development performance, private refining and refining to benefit from high chemical price spreads, and the polyester industry chain will maintain a high trend; CNPC - benefiting from a further upward shift in the Q2 oil price center and steady growth in oil and gas production, with an estimated net profit of 55 billion yuan (YoY +47.9%, QoQ +13.8%); Oil - oil prices moved upward in Q2, with an estimated net profit of 470 100 million (YoY +42.6%, QoQ +20.1%); Sinopec - the refining sector is limited by the price increase of refined oil products and the impact of taxes, with an estimated net profit of 5 billion yuan (YoY -39.2%, QoQ -70.6%); CNOOC - Offshore oil service economy remains high, with an estimated net profit of 1.1 billion yuan (YoY +2.2%, QoQ +28.6%); CNOOC Engineering - offshore oil service orders continue to be fulfilled, with an estimated net profit of 500 million yuan (YoY -10.3%, QoQ +14.0%); Rongsheng Petrochemical - estimated net profit of 2.2 billion yuan (YoY+ 15979%, QoQ -21.9%); Hengli Petrochemical - estimated net profit of 3.3 billion yuan (YoY +230%, QoQ -15.6%); Dongfang Shenghong - estimated net profit of 3.2 billion yuan (YoY +6999%, QoQ +123%); Tongkun Co., Ltd. - the price difference of filament remains high, with an estimated net profit of 2.8 billion yuan (YoY +477%, QoQ +47.5%); Satellite chemistry - the advantage of low prices of raw materials in the ethane process route is highlighted, and it is expected that Q2 will achieve net profit of Yo43 billion (YoY +43 billion) +266%, QoQ+103 %).
Risk warning: geopolitical impact; oil and chemical price fluctuations; economic downturn risk.