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    BYD (SEHK:1211) On Record Exports And Covestro Deal Looks Close To Fair Value

    Simply Wall St·07/15/2026 06:26:24
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    BYD (SEHK:1211) is back in focus after reporting June 2026 production and sales volumes, alongside news of a long term materials partnership with Covestro, all against the backdrop of record Chinese vehicle exports.

    See our latest analysis for BYD.

    At a share price of HK$86.15, BYD has seen short term momentum pick up, with the 1 day share price return of 2.62% and 7 day return of 3.24% contrasting with a year to date share price decline of 12.76% and a 1 year total shareholder return that is down 29.85%. This suggests that recent news about record Chinese vehicle exports and the Covestro partnership is being weighed against a longer period of weaker sentiment.

    If you are looking for more ideas around electric mobility and automation, it can be useful to scan a wider set of EV and component manufacturers through our 33 robotics and automation stocks

    After BYD’s recent bounce, sentiment is caught between renewed optimism from exports and partnerships, and a share price that is still down sharply over 12 months. This raises the question of how much of the potential is already reflected in the stock and how much could still lie ahead as valuation comes into focus.

    Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

    Based on the most followed narrative, BYD’s fair value of HK$85.40 sits just below the last close of HK$86.15, suggesting the market is pricing it very close to that narrative view.

    BYD is a bet on scalable energy. While other brands depend on third-party battery suppliers, BYD dictates the rules of the game, turning the car into a "smartphone on wheels" with record-breaking range. Full control over the supply chain, from lithium mining to in-house microchip production, allows BYD to win the price wars currently shaking the global EV market.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what sits behind that confidence in BYD? The narrative leans heavily on its battery technology, vertical integration and a very assertive global rollout. Curious which financial assumptions tie those pieces together into a near match with today’s HK$86.15 share price?

    Result: Fair Value of HK$85.40 (ABOUT RIGHT)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, BYD’s narrative could be challenged if export resilience weakens or if pricing pressure in key markets squeezes margins more than the current assumptions allow.

    Find out about the key risks to this BYD narrative.

    Another View: BYD Through The SWS DCF Model

    The user narrative sees BYD as only 1% overvalued at HK$86.15 versus a fair value of HK$85.40, but the SWS DCF model tells a very different story. On that measure, BYD is described as trading around 80% below an estimated future cash flow value of HK$431.61, which raises very different questions about upside and risk.

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    1211 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026
    1211 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out BYD for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 213 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Next Steps

    Curious whether the mix of concerns and optimism around BYD really adds up for you personally? Take a close look at the underlying data, pressure test both sides of the argument, and then weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond BYD?

    Once you have formed a view on BYD, do not stop there. Broadening your watchlist with other high quality ideas can sharpen your overall portfolio decisions.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.