Dongfang Jincheng released a research report on July 15, saying that it is expected that 10-year US bond yields will fluctuate upward, driven by the re-escalation of geopolitical risks. First, considering the further escalation of tension between the US and Iran since the weekend, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, international oil prices are expected to rise again. This will once again boost market inflation and interest rate hikes expectations, and become the core factor driving the rise in 10-year US bond yields. Second, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will attend the semi-annual monetary policy hearing in Congress this week. It is expected that the tone of his testimony is likely to be hawkish, and it is expected that it will clearly send a signal to control inflation, thereby boosting real interest rates. However, considering the overall decline in international oil prices in June, it is expected that the US CPI data for June will fall from May, which will curb the increase in US bond yields to a certain extent. Overall, under the combination of geopolitical shocks and the central bank's hawkish guidance, the 10-year US Treasury yield center is likely to continue to rise.

Dongfang Jincheng released a research report on July 15, saying that it is expected that 10-year US bond yields will fluctuate upward, driven by the re-escalation of geopolitical risks. First, considering the further escalation of tension between the US and Iran since the weekend, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, international oil prices are expected to rise again. This will once again boost market inflation and interest rate hikes expectations, and become the core factor driving the rise in 10-year US bond yields. Second, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will attend the semi-annual monetary policy hearing in Congress this week. It is expected that the tone of his testimony is likely to be hawkish, and it is expected that it will clearly send a signal to control inflation, thereby boosting real interest rates. However, considering the overall decline in international oil prices in June, it is expected that the US CPI data for June will fall from May, which will curb the increase in US bond yields to a certain extent. Overall, under the combination of geopolitical shocks and the central bank's hawkish guidance, the 10-year US Treasury yield center is likely to continue to rise.