Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Changxin's listing valuation anchor establishes a “experimental monkey” that has a huge impact and stirs up CXO

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Hong Kong stocks have recently shown a bit of an independent market, and the current trend is very much in line with their internal structure. Compared to the decline in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks have instead become safe havens, rising 1.4% today.

US inflation cooled down beyond expectations: in June, CPI fell for the first time in six years, and core CPI unexpectedly had zero month-on-month growth. Following the announcement of the CPI, traders postponed the expected Fed rate hike until October. But Walsh's congressional hearing was hawkish: even Trump's criticism would act according to data, and the cooling of the CPI in June did not mean inflation's “mission accomplished.” The signal is that independence will be maintained, and there is no expectation that management will be left.

According to CCTV news reports, US President Trump held a meeting in the White House war room on the same day to discuss plans for a large-scale attack on Iran. “The scale of the attack will be broader than the current attack around the Strait of Hormuz.” The purpose cannot be to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz, but it is difficult to estimate. Yesterday, it was said that a 20% fee would be charged for strait freight. It was unanimously criticized by the outside world. Today, the Gulf countries reached a trade and investment agreement with the US to replace the 20% “US compensation fee.” Everything is just a business. The Baltic Exchange Dry Bulk Freight Price Index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Tuesday. Pacific Shipping (02343) is highly sensitive to this index, rising more than 5%.

Technology stocks fell sharply today, especially A-shares, which became the hardest hit area, falling almost indiscriminately. The South Korean stock market also surged today, and this time it won't follow suit. The root cause is that Changxin, the Big Mac IPO, drew blood. Changxin's (688825.SH) IPO determined an issue price of 8.66 yuan/share. Online and offline subscription was launched on July 16, with an estimated listing market value of about 579.188 billion yuan. As a valuation anchor for the latest technology leaders, this issue price is extremely lethal. Many varieties cannot stand up to competition, and there are many inflated components, which directly led to large-scale trampling. Hong Kong stocks are quite good. Originally, there was not much moisture in the listing, so the decline was quite small.

This IPO also benefited, such as CICC (03908) and CITIC Construction Investment Securities (06066), which are co-sponsors and lead underwriters, both of which rose by more than 5% today. CICC announced on the evening of July 14 that its share exchange, absorption and merger of Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities's major asset restructuring matters have been accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In terms of performance, CICC previously announced that it expects to achieve net profit of 7.708 billion yuan to 8.227 billion yuan for the first half year of 2026, an increase of 78% to 90% over the previous year. The overall performance of brokerage stocks is good. The relevant underwriting fees plus follow-up investment are all highlights.

The market has entered a period of “taking medicine” and consumption. Yesterday, I mentioned that innovative drugs have entered into volume reduction hype. The “sector beta” cut to “individual stock alpha” and continued to focus on the CXO category. Unexpectedly, an “experimental monkey” stirred up the market. According to news reports, the market price of experimental monkeys has risen to 200,000, which is comparable to a mid-range car. On the evening of July 14, Zhaoyan New Pharmaceutical (06127) is expected to achieve operating income of 669 million yuan to 739 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 0% to 10.5% over the previous year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother will be 561 million yuan to 842 million yuan, an increase of 2334.2% to 3551.3% year on year. The main reason is that the price of the company's experimental monkeys increased. The assessed price of experimental monkeys fell to 70,000 yuan to 90,000 yuan each in 2024, rebounded to 100,000 yuan to 120,000 yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025, and rose to 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan in the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter is expected to be close to the upper end of this range. The company has a large number of experimental monkey resources. The future mainly depends on whether the increase in monkey prices can be smoothly transmitted to the project quotation. Today it surged nearly 24%.

BD news added another spark. On July 15, British Silicon Intelligence (02696) issued an announcement to officially announce a strategic partnership with Borui Pharmaceutical. According to reports, if the agreement is fully implemented, the total potential value of this cooperation is expected to exceed 2.5 billion US dollars. In addition to this deal, Insili also recently won major BDs such as SK Biopharmaceuticals (totaling more than 2.5 billion US dollars), Takeda (up to about 600 million US dollars), and Kangzhe Pharmaceuticals (up to about 1.2 billion yuan). Also, last night, Dizhe Pharmaceutical (688192.SH), Nuochengjianhua (688428.SH), and Cinda Biotech (01801) launched three major BDs on the same day, covering cutting-edge fields such as ADC, dual antibodies, and metabolic diseases, all worth billions of dollars. This is not a sporadic case, but a systemic wave. Directly catalyzing the CXO boom, the other varieties mentioned yesterday, Kanglong Chemical (03759), Gloria Ying (06821), and Pharmaceutical Kangde (02359) all increased by 5%.

There are also fund companies intensively listing innovative drugs. E-Fangda and Fuguo's “same frame” two leading public offerings rarely increased their holdings at the same time as Baiosetu (02315). On July 2, E-Fangda Fund increased its holdings of BioSaetu by HK$46.9 per share, reaching 7.774 million shares, accounting for 7.02%, constituting a listing. Five days later, Wells Fargo Fund increased its position again at an average price of HK$48.17 per share, reaching 7.7595 million shares, and the shareholding ratio also rose to 7%. The logic of this breed is very strong. As I mentioned a few days ago, the increase was over 11%; Huitianfu's Colunbotai Biotech (06990) was up more than 7%. Jingtai Holdings (02228) for AI pharmaceuticals rose more than 5%.

Jingfang Pharmaceutical-B (02595) plans to place 13.6 million new H shares at an allotment price of HK$34.69 per share, a discount of approximately 9.71% from the previous day's closing price of HK$38.42. The net proceeds from the placement project are about 467 million yuan, of which about 75% will be used to promote core products, RAS inhibitors and other innovative therapies (including GFH276, GFS202A, and GFS784). The capital for this kind of good project that is about to generate revenue will be actively subscribed, and today it will increase by more than 10%.

In terms of consumption, the leading consumer ETF Huitianfu surged more than 3%, and its turnover quickly surpassed 360 million yuan. As of July 14, Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) rose nearly 3%; the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huitianfu also rose more than 1%, and most popular constituent stocks rose by more than 5%: China Zhongbin (01880), and Haier Smart Home (06690) rose more than 2% to be listed on CCTV, Migu Dongpeng Drinks (09980), and Mongolian Dairy (09980) ( 02319) rose more than 6% and 2%, respectively. The performance of Yasui Foods (02648), which is expected to reach an inflection point, rose nearly 8%, and the chain was very busy opening (01768), which was very busy (01768), up more than 4%.

“Kung Fu Women's Football” directed by Chow Sing-chi premiered on July 11, 2026, has broken 9 records in Chinese film history with impressive figures such as 287 million box office on the first day and over 5.79 million moviegoers, and has become a phenomenal film in this year's summer program. The latest box office has surpassed 800 million. Lighthouse AI's latest box office forecast shows that the final box office of the film is expected to hit more than 2 billion yuan, while Maogan Pro Edition predicts that the final box office will be 1,865 billion yuan. Based on a conservative calculation of 1.8 billion yuan, the leading producer+exclusive distributor, Maogan Entertainment (01896) is expected to bring in investment revenue of more than 180 million yuan, increasing profits by more than 30%, up more than 7% today; another Chinese company, Ruyi (00136): its C-live visual team undertakes 190 million yuan of special effects outsourcing orders for the entire film, and additional long-term revenue: the total revenue is estimated to be a little over 2 billion yuan, but the total profit increase is about 12% today.

[Section Focus]

According to Shenwan Light Industry Research Report: Overseas high-cost pulp mills continue to be cleared, 7.14 Canfor announced the permanent closure of Canada's Northwood pulp mill (annual production of 300,000 tons of bleach pulp); Arauco announced that Silver Star rose by 20 to 690 US dollars and Star fell by 20 to 570 US dollars. Coniferous pulp took the lead in a steady recovery, and broadleaf pulp adjustments met previous expectations; box board corrugated paper supply improvement+cost support: imported paper and domestic supply growth gradually shrank, export-driven demand improved beyond expectations, and domestic waste partial cost support (rainy season + support) fiber cycle (Obstructed), paper prices continued to rise, and the off-season was not easy.

According to Zhuochuang, as of 7.14, the average price of boxboard paper/ corrugated paper was 3869/3258 yuan/ton, respectively, up 310/551 yuan/ton from the lowest price in April; currently, paper factory inventories are low. At the end of June, the inventory of box board paper and corrugated paper factories was 9 and 6.9 days, respectively, -0.8 and -0.9 days from the previous month; as of the end of June, the number of days in stock for Jiulong, Liwen, and Mountain Eagle black paper was 7.8, 5.4, and 4.8 days respectively; the second half of the year is the traditional peak season, and paper prices are expected to continue to rise.

Major varieties of Hong Kong stocks: Lee & Man Paper (02314), Nine Dragons Paper (02689).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Midea Group (00300): Europe's extreme high temperatures catalyze continued growth in overseas air conditioning orders

Demand for air conditioners has exploded in many countries due to continued extreme heat in Europe. Midea Group added nearly 200,000 new air conditioning orders for the European market in the past month. Among them, the Wuhu factory received urgent orders for 30,000 mobile air conditioners from French customers. It only took 7 days from order confirmation to first shipment. J.P. Morgan recently raised Midea Group's H share ownership ratio to 13.94%. The company continues to promote A-share repurchases, and has accumulated repurchases of more than 6.1 billion yuan.

Comment: Recently, Europe has continued to be hit by high temperatures. Temperatures in many parts of Spain, France, and Germany have broken through 35 °C. A large number of Europeans shared the rush to buy air conditioners on social media. The company's air conditioners are in high demand in Europe, and overseas air conditioning orders continue to grow. Since this year, PortasSplit's sales volume has doubled compared to the full year of last year, and has shipped more than 200,000 units. In the first quarter of 2026, more than 500 million household appliances in all categories of Midea already have networking capabilities. More than 140 million smart home appliances have been connected globally, connected to more than 150 million smart users, and completed the AI layout of more than 150 categories of household appliances. The company's technological transformation was successful, and from home appliances to technology groups, the three tracks of AI+ robotics+new energy were strong.

ToB explosion: Second curve at the 100 billion level. The growth rate is significantly higher than ToC, and the gross profit is higher. Two-wheel drive (ToC+ToB), ToC (67%): Air conditioning market share 35%; high-end brand COLMO+ Toshiba has high-end revenue of 20 billion yuan + in 2025, accounting for more than 15%. ToB (33%, high increase): 2025 revenue of $122.8 billion (+17.5%); 2026Q1 Building Technology $10.8 billion (+10.1%), robotics $8.2 billion (+11.8%). The company has a global layout, with 29 overseas R&D centers and 43 manufacturing bases, covering 50 countries; overseas revenue in 2025 was 195.9 billion yuan (+16%), accounting for 43%. The whole industry chain: core components such as compressors, motors, and controllers are self-developed and produced. The cost is 10%-15% lower than that of peers, and the delivery cycle is short. Lighthouse factories: 6 (No. 1 in the home appliance industry). The Chongqing Building Technology Factory is the first full-process AI lighthouse factory in the global central air conditioning industry. Robots: KUKA + self-developed humanoid robots are handling orders of 2 billion +, and 2026H2 is delivered centrally. New energy vehicle parts: orders of 5 billion +, supporting leading car companies. AI + high-end: the penetration rate of AI appliances is 40% by 2026; COLMO stores are 2000+, with high-end revenue accounting for 20% +.

The company's globalization deepened, OBM's own brand went overseas, and there was a surge in Southeast Asia, North America, and the Middle East. Midea Group's business has covered more than 200 countries and regions. Overseas and ToB businesses are growing strongly, and Midea Group's ToB business growth rate is expected to be higher than ToC business. Recently, the first point of cooperation between Midea Group and Alibaba Group is to jointly build the core capabilities of whole-house intelligence, and carry out in-depth cooperation in the three directions of home AI brain, IoT ecosystem and lifestyle service scenarios, and popular smart hardware. The company has high dividends and large repurchases. The company's 100% return on net profit (dividends + buybacks), and an expected dividend rate of 1.95% in 2026. The company continued to repurchase large amounts of shares, strong profit growth, and an active shareholder return policy, which significantly boosted investor confidence.