The giant whale withdrew 4.3 billion bitcoins but nearly 6.5 million. Are new buyers entering the market or a trap?

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin price recently hovered at the $65,000 mark. Although Santiment monitoring showed that the popularity of discussions on social platforms such as X, Reddit, and Telegram had fallen to the second lowest level since October 2024, the market undercurrent surged.

This kind of price standoff under low attention theoretically means that retail investors' feelings of chasing increases and losses have subsided, providing large investors with a strategic window to redistribute chips before the public eye returns. However, the market is currently in a game of two very different investment strategies. Only by confirming that the bottom has sufficient fund-raising strength to withstand the pressure of panic sales can this period of calm be defined as a real sign of warming up.

The deep structure of capital flows reveals the severity of the imbalance between supply and demand. CryptoQuant data shows that groups holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins transferred up to $4.3 billion in a single day, an astonishing amount of money. In contrast, the total capital inflow of all ETF products during the same period was only 1/22 of the outflow of this giant whale, and the emergence of institutional demand was far insufficient to absorb the selling pressure of large holders. Currently, the Bitcoin price has failed to break through the double recovery threshold set by Glassnode for five consecutive months: the short-term holder cost benchmark of $72,200 and the real market average of $76,600. Long-term holders' potential daily losses reached up to $280 million, a new high since December 2022, and panic spread.

Furthermore, risk aversion caused by oil price fluctuations has increased market fragility. Bitcoin's trend is highly synchronized with other risky assets, indicating that its safe-haven properties are weakening.

Woofun AI collated data and showed that the macro-liquidity environment showed complex paradoxical characteristics. The US M2 money supply has climbed to a record high of $22.8 trillion, indicating that overall liquidity is in an expansion channel.

However, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is still about $2 trillion below its peak in 2023, so the real yield environment is still tight, and Bitcoin is caught between the proliferation of macro liquidity and the tightening of micro capital. Citibank drastically lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000 in July based on weak investor interest and slow progress in US crypto legislation. The agency further warned that if the global economy falls into recession, the price of Bitcoin could even drop to $53,000.

This pessimistic pricing reflects agencies' dual concerns about macro risk and policy uncertainty. Market sentiment is sharply drawn between the macro narrative of liquidity expansion and the panic sell-off at the micro level.

Determining the life and death line of the future market depends entirely on whether the bottom can effectively withstand continuous selling pressure. If the group holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins ceases to distribute and ETF inflows remain positive for several weeks, Bitcoin is expected to regain the cost benchmark of $72,200 and the market average of $76,600. Conversely, if giant whale disbursements continue, ETF funds turn negative, and long-term holders' fears persist, the risk of the price falling below the $60,000 mark will rise significantly. The market is at a critical watershed. Whether wallets entering the market during the quiet period can absorb the remaining supply in the hands of exits will directly determine whether Bitcoin starts a new bull market or falls into a deep adjustment.