Brazil Export Stocks Facing New US Tariff Pressure
The new U.S. tariffs of up to 37.5% on thousands of Brazilian exports are reshaping the risk profile for several Brazil focused stocks exposed to sugar, ethanol, pig iron, wood products, and tobacco. For investors weighing how this trade shock might influence portfolios, the opportunity is less about chasing a theme and more about deciding which companies carry tariff heavy U.S. exposure that could pressure future sales and margins. This article walks through 3 stocks that appear on the US Tariff Impact Stocks With High Brazil Export Exposure screener and that look more vulnerable under the latest trade measures.
Suzano (BOVESPA:SUZB3)
Overview: Suzano is a Brazilian pulp and paper producer that sells eucalyptus based pulp, printing and writing papers, packaging board and tissue products across Brazil and international markets, while also expanding into biofuels, power generation and cellulose based consumer goods.
Operations: Suzano generates most of its revenue from Pulp at about R$37.6b, with a smaller but meaningful contribution from Paper at roughly R$12.0b.
Market Cap: R$50.8b
Investors looking at Suzano have to weigh an apparently cheap stock against rising risks from the new U.S. tariffs and a business model that leans heavily on debt funded returns. The company sits at the center of Brazilian wood products and pulp exports. Higher duties on wood moldings and paper exports to the U.S. could pressure volumes or pricing, even as management tries to shift product to other regions and pass on a prior 10% tariff to customers. Earnings forecasts already point to weaker growth ahead and interest costs are not comfortably covered, so any hit to cash flow from trade friction, integration challenges in U.S. packaging assets or new mineral projects could leave Suzano looking less like a bargain than headline valuation suggests.
Suzano’s cheap looking valuation and debt heavy model could be masking deeper pressure points as tariffs and interest costs bite. Get the full picture in the 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs (2 are major!)
Vale (BOVESPA:VALE3)
Overview: Vale is a Brazilian mining and metals company that produces iron ore, nickel, copper and other critical minerals, while also operating railways, ports, shipping and power assets that support its global supply chain.
Operations: Vale generates most of its revenue from Iron Ore Solutions at about R$166.5b, with its Base Metals business contributing around R$48.4b.
Market Cap: R$315.6b
Investors looking at Vale cannot ignore how exposed it is to the new U.S. tariffs on pig iron and related metals, just as the business is wrestling with weak margins, high debt and a recent R$26.6b one off loss that clouds earnings quality. The company is focusing on copper and nickel projects tied to decarbonization, but iron ore still dominates revenue and is linked to global steel demand and trade friction. A relatively high P/E, uneven growth history and a 7.4% dividend yield that is not well covered by earnings or free cash flow mean income-focused investors also have to consider how resilient payouts might be if tariffs increase in impact.
Vale’s high P/E, weak margins and uncovered 7.4% dividend yield suggest something in the story is stalling, especially with fresh U.S. pig iron tariffs looming over cash flows. Get the full context in the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs (1 is major!)
Cosan (BOVESPA:CSAN3)
Overview: Cosan is a Brazilian fuel and energy group that runs sugar and ethanol production, Shell branded fuel distribution, natural gas networks, rail logistics, lubricants, and farmland management across Brazil and overseas markets. It ties together Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar to move everything from crops and fuels to lubricants through its integrated infrastructure.
Operations: Cosan generates most of its revenue from Compass at about R$15.6b and Rumo at roughly R$14.2b, with Moove contributing R$9.4b and much smaller amounts from Radar and corporate activities.
Market Cap: R$15.2b
Cosan might catch your eye as a diversified play on Brazilian energy, logistics, and biofuels, but the story currently skews cautious. Sugar and ethanol exports leave it directly exposed to new U.S. tariffs that could compress margins just as the company is still reporting heavy losses, including a R$1,583m loss on Q1 2026 sales of R$9,029m. High leverage, reliance on external borrowing, and recent shareholder dilution increase financial strain. At the same time, questions around board independence and turnover raise governance concerns. Cosan is also investing in sustainable energy and higher margin segments, and some investors are prepared to look past the current pain based on their own expectations for the business.
Cosan’s mix of heavy losses, leverage and fresh U.S. tariff pressure on sugar and ethanol suggests the real stress test may still be ahead, and the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs (1 is major!) could show why some investors are more uneasy than they admit
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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