CITIC Securities: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has once again escalated, and major asset classes are expected to remain affected by fluctuations as a whole

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has once again escalated, and core conflicts such as the control of the strait between the US and Iran have not been resolved due to the June “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding”. The Memorandum of Understanding once promoted the resumption of navigation through the strait, but as the US implemented the southern waterway and Iran strengthened actual control of the waterway, the conflict between the two sides intensified again, and navigation was once again blocked. In terms of assets, crude oil is expected to strengthen in the short term and still fluctuate greatly; risk assets such as global stock markets will still be able to break out of the independent market; gold will continue to show that risk assets are being suppressed in the short term. It is expected that the core differences between the US and Iran will not be resolved for a short period of time. Until then, the issue of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to disrupt all kinds of assets around the world.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

The conflict between the US and Iran has once again escalated, and the Strait of Hormuz has once again become an important variable in global asset pricing.

On July 12, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US immediately expanded its military attack on Iraq, while Iran launched a retaliation operation against US military bases in the Middle East. This is the worst deterioration of the situation since the US and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 17, which means that the phased easing of market expectations has declared bankruptcy, and global energy transportation and geopolitical risks have once again risen.

The memorandum of understanding briefly promoted significant restoration of navigation in the strait, but it deteriorated rapidly after the end of June.

According to the Memorandum of Understanding, Iran promised to clear landmines and arrange for the resumption of commercial shipping traffic. Since then, the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz has picked up rapidly. However, after the end of June, when the US-Iran conflict broke out again, the daily traffic volume in the strait continued to drop, from a high of 70 ships per day to more than 10 ships per day in mid-July. Meanwhile, the ship's routes are clearly concentrated towards the northern waterway controlled by Iran.

The core dispute between the US and Iran has never been resolved, and it is still difficult to say that navigation can be resumed in the short term.

As the US attempted to circumvent the MOU to establish a southern route, Iran began using force to restrict southern navigation. The outbreak of a dispute between the US and Iran over control of the strait caused the situation to deteriorate rapidly after the end of June.

It is still difficult to see a real easing of the situation in the short term.

Whether it is the Trump administration's election considerations or economic pressure within Iran, it is currently insufficient to force any party to make substantial concessions. Furthermore, Israel is still likely to contribute to the escalation of the situation. Therefore, until control of the Strait of Hormuz and the regional security issues that Iran is concerned about are not broken through, any phased cease-fire or the outcome of negotiations may only be temporary.

In terms of major asset classes, it is expected that overall they will still be affected by fluctuations.

The blockage of passage through the strait means that crude oil supply risks still exist, the oil price center still has room to rise in the short term, and the market may still be volatile until the conflict between the US and Iran actually eases. Risk assets are even less sensitive to geographical conflicts, and US stocks and global equity assets are still dominated by the AI industry's own logic. Gold, on the other hand, continues to show the characteristics of “risk capitalization,” and in the short term, it continues to be suppressed by difficulties in navigating the strait. Overall, until the core conflict between the US and Iran is actually eased, the Strait of Hormuz is still an important variable affecting the allocation of major global asset classes.

In the previous cycle (2026/06/27 to 2026/07/10, same below), the overall performance of major asset classes showed that the rise and fall of the global stock market diverged, US stocks rebounded while A shares and Japanese stocks were under pressure, and Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply. Interest rates on treasury bonds around the world have generally risen. The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the RMB weakened slightly. Crude oil rebounded due to renewed fighting in the Middle East, gold rose slightly, and basic metals had mixed ups and downs.

Price changes of key assets in the previous cycle:

The Nasdaq rose 3.89%, the S&P 500 rose 3.01%, the European STOXX 600 rose 0.82%, Nikkei 225 fell -1.16%, South Korea's Kospi fell -11.12%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell -0.77%, Wandequan A fell -2.69%, the Hang Seng Index rose 6.63%, and Hang Seng Technology rose about 5.72%. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 18BP, and the 10-year German bond yield rose 22BP. The US dollar index rose 0.39%, and the offshore renminbi fell -0.33% against the US dollar. WTI crude oil rose 3.15%, London spot gold rose 0.67%, LME copper rose 0.91%, South China industrial products rose 1.11%, and wholesale pork prices rose 8.22%.

Risk factors:

Geopolitical risks exceeded expectations, US inflation exceeded expectations, global economic growth fell short of expectations, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fell short of expectations, and the monetary policies of other central banks around the world fell short of expectations.