Hong Kong's third quarter business outlook survey: positive expectations account for 10%, negative expectations account for 14%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on July 17, the Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Government released the results of a statistical survey on the business outlook for the third quarter of 2026. According to the survey, the proportion of respondents who expected the business situation to improve month-on-month in the third quarter of 2026 was 10%, a slight decrease from 11% in the second quarter; the proportion of respondents expecting a month-on-month deterioration fell from 16% in the second quarter to 14% in the third quarter.

By industry, the transportation, warehousing and courier services, real estate, professional and commercial services industries accounted for a large proportion of respondents who expected business conditions to be worse than in the previous quarter. Among them, the transportation, warehousing and express delivery services industries are also expected to decrease in business volume compared to the second quarter. In the finance and insurance industry, more respondents expected an improvement in business conditions than those who expected to change. In terms of manufacturing, respondents generally expected production in the third quarter to increase compared to the second quarter.

In terms of employment, most industry respondents expected the number of employees in the third quarter to be roughly the same as in the second quarter. In the information and communications industry, there were more respondents who expected a decline in the number of workers than expected to rise.

At the price level, most industries expect the sales price of goods or service charges to be roughly the same as last quarter. In the construction industry, a significant number of respondents expected bid prices in the third quarter to be lower than in the second quarter.

A government spokesman said that the overall short-term business prospects of large enterprises improved slightly in the third quarter of 2026, and overall recruitment intentions stabilized. Looking ahead, the spokesperson pointed out that the continued expansion of Hong Kong's economy should continue to help boost the local business climate, but the surrounding environment is still changing. The situation in the Middle East has recently heated up again, related developments are still continuing to evolve, and the government will continue to closely monitor the possible impact of the relevant situation on the business climate.

The survey covered about 570 large-scale companies in ten major industries in Hong Kong. The visit period was from June 1 to July 6, 2026. It covers ten major industries in Hong Kong, including manufacturing, construction, import and export trade and wholesale industries. The survey results are expressed as a “net difference”, with positive numbers reflecting the expected upward trend and negative numbers reflecting the expected downward trend. The Government advised that due to limited sample size, low percentage survey results in individual industries should be interpreted with caution.