Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | A Tweet Accelerates Decline, Utility Risk Avoidance
[Anatomy Dashboard]
Another rough day. Overnight, the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 4%, and Marvell and Credo plummeted more than 8% to lead the decline. Google dropped more than 4% and SpaceX fell more than 3%, breaking again. SanDisk plummeted by more than 12%. The Nikkei 225 index is expected to record its biggest one-day decline since March. A-shares also fell unbearably, rising less than 500 units in the entire market. Hong Kong stocks couldn't stand up either. The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.78% today.
The US has increased the intensity of its attacks and wants to force Iran to accept the demands put forward by the US side. According to Iranian state media, the new round of attacks by the US military lasted nearly 8 hours from the evening of July 16 to the early morning of today (July 17) local time. Five bridges in Iran have been attacked, causing many deaths and injuries. According to foreign media reports, Iran has asked the Houthis in Yemen to prepare. Once the US military attacks Iran's electricity and other infrastructure, as US President Trump recently threatened, the Houthis will block the Red Sea oil channel. After shipping was blocked due to the war in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, instead exported crude oil through the Strait of Mander. According to data provided by specialized agencies, the Saudi port of Yanbu, located on the Red Sea coast, has recently reached a peak in average daily crude oil shipments. If the Red Sea is blocked again, and global energy supply worsens, the increase in WTI crude oil futures expands to 2%, and the price of Brent crude oil futures rises by 1.86%. Shandong Molong (00568): Recently, it has received another major overseas order, and has successively signed order agreements with three foreign oil companies for oil casings, pipeline pipes, etc., totaling more than 150,000 tons. This marks another solid step on the path of implementing overseas strategies. Today it's up nearly 6%. Shipping continues to be tight, with Oriental Overseas International (00316) and Haifeng International (01308) all rising by more than 2%.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that if inflation does not cool down quickly, interest rate hikes should be considered, but at the same time, he said that the current state of monetary policy is good. However, inflation is expected to rise again. The sharp decline in global diesel supply is likely to reverse this trend and push up the prices of various products, from dog food to timber. This Thursday, the average retail price of diesel per gallon across the US has been pushed back to $5.01. Currently, the world has an average refining capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, and Russia's average diesel exports of 800,000 barrels per day have also been completely cut off — this gap accounts for about 11% of the total global marine diesel trade. The domestic market was originally expected to cut interest rates, but now I'm afraid it will be delayed again.
A tweet from US Republican Senator Bernie Moreno (Bernie Moreno) from Ohio came out today: “I just received a briefing from the White House about what's going to happen tonight. I encourage every American to watch the President's speech tonight. This is probably the most important Oval Office speech since the Cuban missile crisis. The era of complacency with China is over. ” The market is worried that there will be something unfavorable. Negative sentiment will increase at this point. Technology has once again taken a heavy toll, and innovative drugs have not carried it. This is a bit exaggerated.
China's big open source model also ushered in a blockbuster product - Kimi K3, the dark side of the Moon, with 2.8 trillion parameters, and excellent performance on various Benchmarks. In particular, it ranked 3rd in the world in the AA list, after Fable-5 and GPT-5.6, and achieved the world's number one score in Arena.AI's Code Arena list. Weights will open on July 27th. At the pricing level, the input/output price per million tokens is 3/15 US dollars, and the cache hit price is 0.3 US dollars, all of which are currently the highest levels in domestic and open source models, about 1/3 of Fable-5 and 1/2 of GPT-5.6 Sol. Dark Side of the Moon is undergoing a new round of financing, valued at around $31.5 billion; DeepSeek has also launched a new round of financing, with a valuation of around $71 billion.
On the morning of July 17, the country's top leaders attended the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Conference on Artificial Intelligence Global Governance in the Shanghai World Conference Room and delivered a keynote speech: In the next 5 years, China will provide 5,000 training places on artificial intelligence topics to developing countries; build an international artificial intelligence application cooperation center for ASEAN, the Arab Union, the African Union, Latin America and the Caribbean, the SCO, and the BRICS countries. Direct stimulation of excellence and innovation (02687): The only major physical AI+ higher education knowledge model for Hong Kong stocks, science and education AI has already been launched: SCO Central Asian countries have built cross-border joint laboratories to export virtual simulation teaching platforms for new energy and materials disciplines to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, etc., which is an official Belt and Road AI cooperation demonstration project; physical AI is the country's main foreign technology export direction, covering energy, aerospace, medical care, and industrial training. The company has accumulated 30,000 + subject structured knowledge units, which already have core simulation advantages in the field of physics. The application was launched in the medical and industrial fields, which is in line with the industrial AI support policies for ASEAN, Middle East, and Central Asian countries. The recent trend has been quite aggressive; today it has risen again by nearly 5%.
Technology has plummeted today. I was expecting pharmaceutical stocks to stabilize, but they couldn't handle it. Overall, it was very weak. It was only in the utilities category of consumption and safe haven.
Consumption is focused on the textile and apparel category. Jiuxing Holdings (01836) announced that in the three months ending June 30, 2026, the Group's unaudited consolidated revenue increased by about 1.2% to US$449.3 million; revenue increased by about 1.5% to US$786.7 million. The Group plans 2026 as the investment year, and it is anticipated that most of the profit growth brought about by the strategies outlined in the three-year plan will be realized later in the 2026-2028 period. With regard to the three new plants in Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam, the Group expects to commence operations in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, in addition to maintaining a dividend rate of about 70% to pay regular dividends (including final dividends and interim dividends), the Group will distribute up to $60 million in additional cash to shareholders in 2026 through a combination of share repurchases and special dividends, which rose more than 6% today. Other Taobo (06110), Yuyuan Group (00551), and Samsonite (01910) all increased by nearly 3%.
Utilities are generally strong. For example, Anhui Wantong Expressway (00995), Beijing Holdings (00392), and Guangdong Investment (00270) all rose more than 2%.
On July 16, TCL Electronics (01070) announced the acquisition of 51% of TCL Air Conditioning's controlling interest for HK$5.61 billion. The transaction was completed with a small amount of cash and additional shares. After the fourth quarter delivery, the air conditioning business was officially merged into the listed company system. The acquisition will make up for the core shortcomings of TCL Electronics White Power, and also form a synergy effect in the industrial chain. The domestic home appliance market will form a three-legged pattern of Haier, Midea, and TCL, and TCL will become the only company with global TV leaders and large-scale air conditioning export production capacity. Overseas comprehensive competitiveness has caught up with the second tier, forcing the industry to accelerate the integration of all categories. Today, it has risen nearly 6%.
Over the past two days, BYD Electronics (00285) has been active. Rumor has it that the company is engaged in the cross-border optical module business. In fact, there is no such thing. The company has already refuted the rumor. The truth is that many years ago, they recruited a team from a small Wuhan company to work at a low speed telecom, but it didn't work. The team's core personnel have all left one after another. Everyone is careful to tell the difference.
[Section Focus]
July 17 -- International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol warned on the 16th that if oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be resumed within a few weeks, global energy security will turn red. He said that the countermeasures taken by some countries “cannot last forever”; even if the US increases oil production drastically, it is far from enough to make up for the supply gap caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The shortage of oil will inevitably lead to an increase in demand for alternative energy sources. The price of coal will further strengthen.
The main varieties of Hong Kong stocks: China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yankuang Energy (01171), Yancoal Australia (03668).
[Individual Stock Mining]
Chuangke Industrial (00669): Core business achieved high growth and continued share buybacks to boost confidence
Recently, the company signed an automatic share repurchase agreement with HSBC to spend up to $500 million to repurchase common shares on the Stock Exchange. Since then, the company has continued to carry out daily repurchase operations. The agency estimates the company's revenue for the first half of the year of $8.1 billion (+4% YoY) and net profit of $700 million (+10% YoY).
Comment: The company is the world's leading lithium battery rechargeable power tool, with double brand hierarchical barriers. The Milwaukee M12/M18 and RYOBI ONE+ battery platforms are each compatible with more than 200 tools. Milwaukee: Special tools for construction sites, infrastructure, and AIDC data centers in North America. Professional workers are extremely loyal, and the brand premium is extremely strong, contributing about 66% of revenue and over 80% of profit; in 2025, AIDC related revenue was about 1.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 10% of the group's total revenue and 16% of the Milwaukee brand. The growth rate was 20% to 25%, far higher than the overall 4% growth rate of the group. Brand revenue in 2025 was $10.1 billion, +8.1% year-on-year, and continued to increase.
RYOBI: Affordable household lithium battery tools. The ONE+ battery platform locks in ordinary households, stabilizes the basic market, grows steadily at a low single digit level, and hedges against fluctuations in the real estate cycle. Compared with leading Stanley Patek: Innovation and Technology's gross profit margin was 41.2% in 2025, and the rival was only 30.3%. The product structure advantage widened the profit gap. Deep channel binding, and exclusive in-depth cooperation with Home Depot in North America for 20 years, contributing 45% of total revenue; Lowe's and large European supermarkets have full coverage, and the barriers to offline retail are high. There are sufficient orders in hand. The company signed annual full-year supply framework agreements with Home Depot and Lowe's. Orders for the whole year were locked in advance, and RYOBI orders for home gardening and basic power tools were stable.
AIDC/industrial infrastructure incremental orders are growing rapidly, and leading North American infrastructure contractors Quanta Services and computer room engineering companies have been purchasing Milwaukee industrial tools on a fixed basis for a long time. In 2026-2027, a large number of new AI data centers and new energy grid projects have been launched in the US, and orders for industrial maintenance tools continue to increase. The agency predicts a compound growth rate of 20% + for the next 3 years for the AIDC business. The company has had a strong start in 2026, and its core Milwaukee and Ryobi businesses are expected to grow in the middle to high single digits. Meanwhile, profit margins are expected to expand further as tariff mitigation measures are gradually implemented in the second half of 2025. The company's $500 million buyback program has significantly boosted investor confidence.