Toho Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 45%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥89b revenue coming in 2.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥9.81 missed the mark badly, arriving some 45% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Toho's ten analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be JP¥361.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥57.25, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥360.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥57.95 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Toho
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,693, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Toho analyst has a price target of JP¥2,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,400. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.2% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Toho's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toho's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,693, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Toho. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Toho going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Toho Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.