Addnode Group AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
There's been a notable change in appetite for Addnode Group AB (publ) (STO:ANOD B) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 14% to kr37.15. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr0.15, some 68% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr1.4b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the five analysts covering Addnode Group are now predicting revenues of kr6.02b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be kr2.39, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr6.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr3.00 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Addnode Group
The average price target fell 22% to kr74.60, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Addnode Group at kr94.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr63.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Addnode Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Addnode Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Addnode Group. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Addnode Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Addnode Group you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.