With risk aversion ebbing and gold prices recovering, can the “growth” of Chifeng Gold (06693, 600988.SH) support the next step?

In the midsummer of 2026, the global capital market is experiencing a fierce game of “risk aversion” and “greed,” and the spotlight of this game unsurprisingly fell on gold and its related assets. The Zhitong Finance App noticed that gold prices once broke through the sky in the first half of this year, not only verifying the previous market forecast that gold prices would break through $3,000 or higher, but also made gold a well-deserved “hard currency” in global asset allocation; in July, with subtle changes in the geopolitical landscape, especially signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict situation, which had previously been pushed to the extreme risk aversion rapidly cooled down. Gold prices showed clear pullbacks and fluctuations at a high level.

In this “roller coaster” market, the performance of gold stocks is particularly remarkable. As an industry trend vane, Chifeng Gold (06693, 600988.SH)'s recent announcement of 2026 interim results is undoubtedly injecting a dose of strength into the market.

The certainty of a “sharp rise in volume and price”

In the capital market, performance forecasts are often viewed as a “litmus test” for stock prices. The core logic of the Yingxi announcement issued by Chifeng Gold this time is still not separated from the most essential driving factor in the gold industry — “sharp rise in volume and price.”

According to the latest announcement, Chifeng Gold expects net profit of 1.7 billion yuan (RMB, same below) to 1.78 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 54% to 61% over the previous year. The company said that the main reason behind this impressive data is the sharp rise in gold prices compared to the same period last year. The average gold sales price increased by about 43% year on year, while benefiting from the company's continuous strengthening of production organization and operation management.

Judging from the “price” dimension, despite the recent decline in gold prices, looking at the extended cycle, the average price of gold in the first half of 2026 remained within a historically high range. For mining companies, the marginal cost of gold mining is relatively fixed, which means that the excess income brought about by rising gold prices can be almost fully converted into net profit. With its competitive cost control capabilities within the industry, Chifeng Gold's profit sheet recovery speed far exceeded market expectations. Judging from the “volume” dimension, the “growth” label of Chifeng Gold is becoming more and more clear. Whether it is the expansion of production in overseas mines or deep prospecting in domestic mines, it is providing a steady stream of impetus for the increase in production.

However, under the general trend of overall improvement, short-term performance fluctuations cannot be ignored either. According to estimates, the company's net profit for the second quarter is expected to be 712 million yuan to 792 million yuan, down 19% to 27% from the first quarter. This decline in month-on-month data objectively reflects the recent phased pressure on gold prices and the drag on short-term profits caused by the concentration of technical improvements and maintenance in some mines. But this is not a deterioration in the company's fundamentals, but rather a “short-term pain” in the production capacity release cycle. With the completion of subsequent technical reforms and the steady rise in overseas mineral capacity, this endogenous value brought by the increase in production can still lock in a definite increase in profits. This is the fundamental reason why the capital market is still paying high attention to high-quality gold stocks in the current turbulent environment — looking for certainty in performance growth in an uncertain macro environment.

A “safe haven” under the fog of geography

In fact, investing has never been a linear one-way street. Just when the market was looking forward to the gold forecast, sudden changes in geopolitics threw cold water on the gold price.

Recently, the much-publicized US-Iran conflict situation has shown signs of easing. This news seemed to overthrow the first dominoes, and quickly triggered a decline in risk aversion in the market. As a traditional safe-haven asset, the price of gold is often positively correlated with the level of geopolitical tension. When the war fades, capital will be quickly withdrawn from the gold market to equity assets with higher risk appetite. Affected by this, after experiencing a sharp advance in the first half of the year, international gold prices have recently experienced a sharp rise and fall. Spot gold prices once rebounded in part of the year's increase.

This sharp short-term fluctuation has made the market start to worry: has the “mad cow” market for gold come to an end? Has the upward logic of gold stocks such as Chifeng Gold fundamentally reversed?

In the face of market fluctuations, rational strategic research and judgment is particularly critical. Although the easing of the US-Iran conflict has suppressed gold prices in the short term, when examined from a broader perspective, the underlying logic that supports the long-term rise in gold prices has not fundamentally wavered.

First, the “gold buying fever” of central banks around the world is still the strongest backing for gold prices. According to data from the World Gold Council, the trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings reached a climax in 2024, and this trend did not fundamentally change in 2026. In particular, central banks in emerging market countries, represented by China and Russia, are still buying gold continuously and steadily due to strategic considerations of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and de-dollarizing them. This rigid demand from the official sector provides a solid “floor” for the price of gold. According to data from the Guoxin Securities Research Report, central banks around the world have continued to increase their gold holdings in recent years. Gold purchases reached 243.7 tons in the first quarter of 2026, and the Central Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 20 consecutive months.

Second, the US debt problem and the fluctuation of the credit and monetary system are the ultimate drivers of gold. No matter how the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts changes, America's huge debt and rising deficit continue to weaken the dollar's credit. As American billionaire John Paulson said, the world is seeking to break away from the banknote system, and the general trend of using gold as a reserve currency will not change. In this macro context, gold is not only a commodity, but also an “ultimate currency” to counter the depreciation of credit currencies.

Therefore, the recent fall in gold prices due to the easing of the situation between the US and Iran should be viewed more as a kind of “technical correction” rather than a “trend reversal.” For companies like Chifeng Gold, although short-term fluctuations in gold prices will affect market sentiment, they will not change the endogenous value brought by the increase in production.

Summarize

Looking back at the mid-2026 point, the gold market is at a critical stage of “deception and preservation of truth”.

As the price of gold soars and falls, it is likely that the previous general rise in the gold sector, which had been “rising and rising”, has come to an end, and the market is returning to rational pricing at an accelerated pace. When the tide receded, high-quality companies that actually relied on their own production growth to redeem their profits faced real tests and opportunities. Chifeng Gold's bright report, Yingxi, actually sent a clear signal to the market: under the “new normal” where gold prices fluctuate high, companies with high-quality mining resources, capacity release capacity, and excellent cost control can still get through the cycle through “volume compensation” or even “volume and price increase.”

For investors, in the face of fluctuations in gold prices brought about by changes in the geographical situation, it is probably more important to return to rational asset allocation logic. As a “ballast stone” to hedge against macro risks, gold's long-term value still exists, but the short-term price game will undoubtedly intensify. Against the backdrop of general growth dividends fading, market capital is likely to focus more on the fundamentals of enterprises. In the future, mining companies with the ability to deliver results and room for long-term growth may face opportunities for valuation reshaping, while targets that lack fundamental support may face adjustment pressure. In this golden “midfield battle,” who can have the last laugh ultimately depends on who can go deeper and run farther in the wind and waves.