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To own Deere, you need to believe its mix of iron, software, and services can remain attractive even as farm and construction cycles move around. The new right to repair settlement adds some uncertainty around high margin service revenue, but it does not change the near term focus on stabilizing large ag demand and managing tariff and cost pressures, which remain the key catalyst and the biggest risk.
Recent commentary that Deere stock screens as undervalued on discounted cash flow and earnings multiples is especially relevant here, because those models hinge on future margin and cash flow assumptions. The right to repair agreement could influence how much value Deere can sustain from its aftermarket service model, which is central to many of those intrinsic value estimates.
Yet behind the appeal of more flexible repair options, there is a material risk investors should be aware of around Deere’s reliance on high margin service income...
Read the full narrative on Deere (it's free!)
Deere's narrative projects $48.4 billion revenue and $9.3 billion earnings by 2029. This assumes fairly flat yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $4.5 billion from $4.8 billion today.
Uncover how Deere's forecasts yield a $644.21 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest analysts were already cautious, assuming earnings of about US$6.1 billion by 2029 and a lower PE, so you should expect views on margin risk from right to repair to diverge even more from here.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Deere - why the stock might be worth just $644.21!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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