Is Copilot expected to surpass 30 million seats? France and Pakistan are bullish on Microsoft (MSFT.US) Q4: Revenue and capital expenditure may welcome “double acceleration”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) released a research report saying that Microsoft (MSFT.US)'s financial report and outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 are expected to be a catalyst for stock prices — revenue growth will accelerate, but capital expenditure guidelines may also rise at the same time.

Francois analyst Stefan Slowinski (Stefan Slowinski) said in the report: “We expect Azure's growth rate to be 41% in the fourth fiscal quarter (the market agrees to expect about 40%), while the number of Copilot seats will further accelerate. Considering that the fourth fiscal quarter is usually the peak season for seasonal reservations (M365 Business Cloud is expected to increase 16% year over year at a fixed exchange rate), the number of new seats added this quarter is expected to reach 7 million to 8 million, and may even break the 30 million mark under optimistic circumstances.”

He further stated, “For the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect the Azure growth rate guide to be 40% to 41% (the market agreed to expect 40.6%), and the M365 commercial cloud growth guide will be 15% to 16% (if Copilot has more than 30 million seats, it is expected to reach 17% at a fixed exchange rate).”

For the entire 2027 fiscal year, France and Pakistan expect Microsoft's revenue to grow by 18%, higher than the market's consensus estimate of 16.8%. This difference is expected to be a catalyst for rising stock prices.

Furthermore, France and Pakistan raised Microsoft's capital expenditure forecast for fiscal year 2027 by 15% to US$262 billion, mainly due to continued component inflation. The bank maintained Microsoft's “outperforming the market” rating, but lowered its target price slightly from $555 to $549.

Microsoft plans to release the fourth quarter results for the 2026 fiscal year after the market on July 29. The market agreed to expect adjusted earnings per share of US$4.24 and revenue of US$87.67 billion. For the same period in fiscal year 2025, Microsoft had earnings of $3.65 per share and revenue of $76.44 billion.

Microsoft's previous fiscal quarter Azure growth guide was 39% to 40% at a fixed exchange rate. Although the 41% forecast by France and Pakistan is only slightly higher than 40% of the market consensus, it is significant — it means that Azure's growth rate is expected to accelerate slightly after stabilizing at around 40% for several consecutive quarters.

A number of institutions have similarly optimistic expectations. Goldman Sachs reports that Azure's year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 40% to 41% at a fixed exchange rate, and guidance for the next quarter is likely to remain within this range. HSBC Research expects Azure to grow by around 39.6%.

The commercialization process of Copilot is another major concern in this financial report.

France and Brazil expect the number of new Copilot seats to reach 7 million to 8 million this quarter. Under optimistic circumstances, it may even surpass 30 million. Previously, France and Palestine had anticipated in May that the number of Copilot seats might exceed 25 million by the end of the 2026 fiscal year. According to public data, the number of Microsoft M365 Copilot paid enterprise seats surpassed 20 million in April. The number of seats increased 160% year over year, and weekly user activity is on par with Outlook.

Slowinsky said that Copilot's user sentiment has improved significantly, participation in Excel, PowerPoint, and Word continues to rise, and Microsoft recently emphasized stronger monthly engagement and retention metrics. Preview products such as Copilot Cowork received positive feedback, indicating that Microsoft is effectively dealing with AI pressure from competitors such as Anthropic.

Notably, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood (Amy Hood) made it clear during the fiscal third fiscal quarter call that Copilot seat growth will “accelerate again” in the fourth fiscal quarter. This means that management also has strong confidence in Copilot's commercialization prospects.

For investors, the number of Copilot seats is a core indicator for testing the penetration rate of enterprise-side AI — if it exceeds 30 million, it means that enterprise AI adoption is accelerating; if it falls below 20 million, it may raise concerns about the speed of commercialization.