Caitong Securities: Anti-internal rollout drives price restoration to seize excellent performance and undervalued express delivery opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Caitong Securities released a research report saying that in the express delivery industry, the performance of express delivery companies has generally recovered, and the volume growth rate continues to diverge. It is recommended to focus on the bottom of the valuation, A-share leader Yuantong Express (600233.SH), Hong Kong stock leader Zhongtong Express - W (02057), and Shentong Express (002468.SZ) and Yunda shares (002120.SZ), which are highly flexible in the anti-internal roll. In view of the fact that many main lines in the express delivery industry have layout opportunities, the express delivery industry's “optimistic” rating is maintained.

The main views of Caitong Securities are as follows:

Industry volume and price

① Volume: In June 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of physical online retail sales (3.9%) > The year-on-year growth rate of business volume in the express delivery industry (3.8%) > the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods (1.0%); from January to June 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of the express delivery industry business volume (5.0%) > The year-on-year growth rate of physical online retail sales (4.8%) > The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods (1.3%). ② Price: In June 2026, the express delivery industry's single ticket revenue was 7.77 yuan, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year. The “anti-domestic roll” of the industry continues to advance, and the year-on-year growth trend of the industry's single ticket revenue continues.

Volume and price of each company

① Volume: In June 2026, the express business volume of Yuantong Express/Yunda Co., Ltd., Shentong Express/SF Holdings was +8.60%/-0.05%/+18.59%/-4.86%, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of the industry's business volume was 3.8%. The year-on-year growth rate of Yuantong Express and Shentong Express was higher than that of the industry. ② Price: In June 2026, Yuantong Express/Yunda Co., Ltd. /Shentong Express/SF Holdings had year-on-year revenue growth rates of -1.90%/+10.47%/+6.03%/+5.41%, respectively. In June, against the backdrop of continued anti-domestic sales promotion, single ticket prices for Yunda Co., Ltd., Shentong Express, and SF Holdings increased markedly year-on-year; overall, the year-on-year increase in the company's price was positively correlated with the year-on-year decline in business volume. The main reason why Shentong Express achieved a significant increase in volume and price is that Danniao Logistics and its holding subsidiaries have been included in the scope of Shentong Express's consolidated statements since November 2025. After Danniao Logistics is merged into the consolidated report of Shentong Express, the overall express delivery business volume and express delivery service revenue scale of Shentong Express may further increase.

Expected increase in performance

Anti-domestic roll results have been shown, and the H1 performance of Yuantong Express, Yunda Co., and Shentong Express may have increased significantly. According to the performance pre-increase announcements of various express delivery companies: ① Yuantong Express is expected to achieve net profit of 3.10 billion yuan - 340 billion yuan, an increase of 69.34% - 85.73%; ② Yunda Co., Ltd. expects to achieve net profit of 905 million yuan to 1,050 million yuan, an increase of 71.15% to 98.57%; ③ Shentong Express expects to achieve net profit of 950 million yuan to 1,060 million yuan, an increase of 109.59% to 133.85% year on year.

Risk warning: industry policy adjustments; industry sentiment falls short of expectations; cost control falls short of expectations; oil prices fluctuate greatly